No doubt about the fact that NPV predictions are tough! No dispute there. But, my guess, based upon my estimate of 80% to 90% chance of EMA approval is that NPV is much greater than $10.04. That's exactly why I am extremely bullish on AVXL's future prospects.
Is AVXL NPV $40, $80, or $200, I don't know? All my analysis suggests concludes is that NPV is much, much higher than $10.04. Any sensible investor, imo, has to start somewhere with their NPV estimate and I have chosen to outline mine in a previous post, and again, it is much, much higher than $10.04.