Replies to post #485079 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Hoskuld]

IDK...if MAA is approved then let's say $3b in Revenue in 2028 and work back 3 years - say $15b MC discounted back 20% each year...so roughly $7.5b-$8b market cap? If MAA is not approved but 3-71 results are good then purely based on schizophrenia and approval coming n 2028 and $1b in sales in 2031, then $6b discounted back 20% for 6 years...maybe $2b? PD is too far out there to count on so will ignore it. If neither MAA approval comes nor 3-71 results are extremely good, then...there is no NPV calc that makes sense because the stock would be sitting at ~$350m based purely on speculation that the company could run a pair of truly effective PD P3 trials.

[Bourbon_on_my_cornflakes]

NPV is tough. Like doing NPV on Schrodingers cat.

the analysts $40 numbers have been out there since before we applied to the EMA.

given accepted EMA application, I put together a reasonable credible NPV for $86.

which should be hit by formal acceptance if not sooner.

Of course we all know Biogen got $20 billion market cap for their garbage.

And our number depends on how well we do in the partnership negotiations also.