Replies to post #820115 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[JSmith5]

I don't think it will follow that pattern, we're in for an interesting ride.

Definitely will be interesting. But I think the exit itself and even the SWF are on well trodden ground - the SWF if not for the US, then other countries. Its going to be a cut and paste from something. Its just in their DNA. Just what they cut and paste from is the issue.

Nats

[kthomp19]

The initial terms with the SPS that can't be paid down as the entities return to profitability, followed by the Net Worth Swipe, and finally a "win" for shareholders that solidifies that the GSEs breached their side of the shareholder agreement by intentionally thwarting the shareholders. There are plenty of unprecedented examples for the GSEs.

This is far more similar to AIG than you realize.

1) The Starr case was a "win" at the district level, at least until it got overturned on appeal. Just like Collins in the Fifth Circuit. The jury verdict can still be appealed, was for a pittance in damages, and has no precedential power at all.
2) Treasury's AIG preferred shares also couldn't be repaid.

Because they entered their situation differently, I believe the exit will also incorporate new methods not seen before.

But why would those new methods be better for FnF legacy common than they were for AIG?