Wednesday, March 05, 2025 9:58:53 AM
I have never, NEVER, NEVER, seen or heard of a consultant who deals with the Government that had an original thought.
That's certainly the norm in many cases. But I would argue that the GSEs have defied this norm. The initial terms with the SPS that can't be paid down as the entities return to profitability, followed by the Net Worth Swipe, and finally a "win" for shareholders that solidifies that the GSEs breached their side of the shareholder agreement by intentionally thwarting the shareholders. There are plenty of unprecedented examples for the GSEs.
Because they entered their situation differently, I believe the exit will also incorporate new methods not seen before. For example, the Sovereign Wealth Fund comes to mind. The ability to predict what has happened (before it happened) and what will happen is far more challenging that most are wanting to admit. They just want to slap a 20 year old model on the current situation and call it a day. I don't think it will follow that pattern, we're in for an interesting ride.
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