Replies to post #2247 on Mining Sector Ideas

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, >> snowbirds <<

Temperatures in the 60-80 range would be great. The winters up here are long and gloomy, especially in retirement. I visited a friend in Florida a few times back in the 1980s (Feb), and it was 15 degrees here, 78 down there. People driving around in convertibles, girls on the beach, etc. I can see why retirees flock down there in the winter. I remember looking at real estate in Florida, and some great deals back then. With the hurricane problems though, probably better to just go there in the winter. Arizona and New Mexico don't have that problem, and some higher elevation areas also have moderate summers.

With McCalvany, they do money management for clients? I'd be interested to see their LT track record, annual investment results, list of investments, etc. They sound like 'perma-bears', but just wondering which strategies they use, etc. Thanks.

Well, I lowered the stock allocation back down to 10% today (from 16%). Some profits had built up, so I figured why not grab them. The tariff uncertainty has been reduced considerably, but new policies are being announced daily, so it's a lot to digest. I figure as Wall Street gets more acclimated to the new paradigm, the market could gradually resume its upward trajectory. But for now I'll probably be grabbing the profits fairly quickly when they appear. That worked well in recent years, with the choppy market.



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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Reportedly a big chunk of the Feb gold future contracts have received 'delivery notices' (article below) They want the actual metal, instead of rolling over into new contracts or letting contracts expire. The article suggests this is part of an arbitrage process, but another possibility is that more contract holders simply want to own the metal itself. Gold prices have already been rising, and in late Jan broke through the Oct highs, and have been elevating since. So not only are central banks buying gold, but holders of gold contracts have been demanding physical delivery.


>>> JPMorgan Plans $4 Billion US Gold Delivery Amid Tariff Fears <<<


https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175745840




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[gfp927z]

Gold closing in on 2900. Looking at GLD, it's near term overbought (RSI 73), so could get a consolidation, but then get a second wind to get through 2900 (?) That's what happened last year ~ March / April, with a breakout move up, a pause to consolidate, and then another strong move up.

Fwiw, on the stock side I'm back up to 16% (from 10%). So 'buying the dip', although it might still have further to dip next week, down to test the 50 MA (?) Tough to say, but my working hypothesis is that the market starts to regain some buoyancy in the months ahead as Wall St gets more used to the new Trump paradigm. Anxiety should rise again approaching the early March tariff deadline, but after that the bias 'should' be modestly to the upside. Just a guess though.

Btw, I lowered the max allowable in stocks down to 20% from 25%, figuring there's no sense getting too deep into short term trading. Instead of keeping the excess in the $ market, I moved it into the 3 year Treasury bond ladder, which reduces its availability for trading. As the old saying goes - 'The more you trade, the more you lose', so no sense tempting fate too much.



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