What would happen if regulators determined that companies conspired in multiple ways, including reducing the health and survival of cancer patients by intentionally reducing cancer fighting therapy production also, coincidentally, needed in a new company’s supply chain just to keep a new technology at bay?
This conspiracy theory fails badly for several reasons.
There are many manufacturers of BCG, of which MRK is not even the largest. Though Merck's is the only approved drug in the US, the BCG in Direct is just being used as an API; so getting approval to use an alternative in a trial is easy, and commercially is just some modest cost to get a supplier approved.
Yes, Merck is short, They are presently building a new facility to open in '25 or '26 (though one poster here asserts Merck cannot possibly be building any vaccine facility that is not for DCVax).
In 2024 the global BCG demand is estimated at 330M doses and $153.6 million. There are 24 active manufacturers of BCG vaccine and an overall adequate global production capacity.