I am very upset that it is December 2024 and we have nothing to do but guess where the company actually stands in its development.
Is an upcoming "T1 announcement" going to be announcing the start of a collaboration? Or is there a sellable product along with the "grand reveal"?
I'm inclined to believe it'll be a relatively mature relationship since in May we saw "transceiver outsourcing" as a 2024/2025 task and the company initiated work with a transceiver company in 2022. Then at the recent Optica PECC in October, Atikem was asked a question by Brad Booth (NLM Photonics) in the Q&A and it indicated LWLG is already encountering the reflow process with a partner. The reflow process would be the process of integrating the modulator chip/PIC into a transceiver module. This isn't something that LWLG would do in their own lab or at the foundry. Perhaps a company like Jabil.
One thing I am starting to question is whether or not LWLG still intends to build/sell 4x200G PICs. Is the industry developing so quick that LWLG thinks it is best to focus on 400G now and get out the gate early? We just don't know. The company should provide us a product roadmap. There will be multiple waves of 800G/1.6T deployments over the coming years, so LWLG should still be offering 200G/lane PICs. We just don't know. All we've heard from Lebby in the last 2 years is that it is "in process". At Optica PECC October 2023, Lebby said to the audience that the PIC would be ready in 2024.
400G/lane is really only needed for 3.2T modules and that's a couple years away. I'd expect to see the first 3.2T prototypes later 2025 and volume production late 2026/early 2027. I'm sure we'll see some demos of 1.6T using 400G lanes, too.
Back to your questions...why no Imec/LWLG PR with that paper? I don't know. It was a relatively exotic device and probably was for experimental purposes only.
Ultimately, I do believe major transceiver/component/OSAT companies that plan to buy hundreds of thousands, or millions, of these devices would want LWLG to have more than one foundry who is capable of producing them. Lebby and Atikem recently have both said publicly that they are working with multiple foundries.
Shazaam - I still linger but I am just disinterested at this point. I am holding my shares. I did sell 5k as I previously mentioned the morning of the Q3 update letter. I wholeheartedly believe in this technology and nothing I see/hear/read indicates the potential has been reduced. LWLG needs to hurry the F up though and changes must be made to management structure.
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