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Hosai

11/24/24 9:01 AM

#474861 RE: Hoskuld #474860

"You might make the case that they didn't know so they didn't go all in. But they represented to us (buyers of shares) that they were committed to succeeded - not that they were semi-committed and hedging their bets."

Every company trying to develop an early AD drug is to some degree hedging their bets because the odds are stacked against them. Nearly all will find their drug doesn't work. Hence only a couple of new AD drugs in EMA in last few decades. Hence why other pre-revenue companies such as Annovis, Biovie and Alzheon all go for similar smaller size trials. (obv Annovis and Bivi both then had additional issues with theirs). Sava are an exception when it comes to their size of trials and being pre-revenue imo.
Companies that get too low on cash run into big troubles as Baked Lasagne pointed out. Dr Missling has to balance out these factors, they obv also didn't foresee the higher dropout rate covid would exacerbate.

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boi568

11/24/24 9:05 AM

#474862 RE: Hoskuld #474860

Regarding the Rett trial, one of the primary co-endpoints was CGI-I, apparently added after a consultation with a regulator. It failed, and probably not because there weren't enough enrolled patients. Because of the pandemic, this endpoint was determined remotely and not in person.

CGI-I, never a very sophisticated measurement to begin with, requires the physician's impression of the patient's condition; there is no doubt that using a screen instead of an in-person visit would seriously reduce the information available. Trofinetide's trial, if I recall correctly, used a mix of in-person and remote visits for this endpoint.

What I am describing, originally suggested here by JoeBear, is not a level of noise that could be overcome by higher patient enrollment, but a basic lack of signal (due to pandemic-required methodology) that could never be overcome.

There was no suggestion, by the way, that this endpoint was compromised by a too-high placebo response.
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oldmystic

11/24/24 9:24 AM

#474865 RE: Hoskuld #474860

Risk management is also an area of expertise of mine too


A legend in his own mind. Get over yourself Husky.
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frrol

11/24/24 9:44 AM

#474866 RE: Hoskuld #474860

Missing was over-confident/optimistic on Rett.