Thanks JFR,
As I see it, LP is constantly bringing in a tiny stream of money with newly issued shares. Frankly I'm uncertain if they're ATM sales, or permitting or asking friendly investors with options to cash them in for shares. I believe she holds, or is very friendly with investors holding virtually hundreds of millions in options and it backstops her in terms of needing cash on a daily basis. We know that she's wealthy and holding substantial options, but has restriction on how quickly she can sell them.
There is no doubt in my mind that if the company had billions available they'd operate differently. DCVax-Direct would almost certainly be in trials, and other new trials would no doubt be underway to prove a tumor agnostic label. If we had that, we couldn't possibly meet the demand, but the game will totally change once the EDEN is approved.
I don't know if others estimates for manufacturing the EDEN for a few tens of thousands is true, but even if significantly off, it would still be saying that the EDEN can be manufactured for less than what the first patient to get vaccine from it will be charged. In short, if we had the approval and the manufacturer who could manufacture tens of thousands of them a month, the need for the vaccine could easily pay for all the EDEN's being made. For now, we can only strive to get it accepted for commercial production. I don't believe that money is preventing that from happening.
Clearly in the future, after approvals, NWBO will have choices to make. Do they want to grow as a company, and take on much production themselves, or stay essentially as they are, and contract for essentially all they're doing. I would suppose that even the design of new trials could be contracted out, if that's what they really want to do, but I would think they've had the time to design the trials already, with approvals and revenue coming in, and much higher stock prices, hopefully it won't be long before they can get them started.
If you're right about a new funding vehicle, that's a positive. I suspect that after one or more approvals some contracts, or partnerships, may be announced, though it may not come until we have the EDEN and perhaps a filing with the FDA or other regulators.
As I've stated, I believe we're at T-57 today, but I believe the odds are pretty close to even that by T-30 we'll have an approval. If I'm right about that, I don't know that we'll truly get a runup to approval that's near what would occur if it didn't occur until nearly day 150. If it's correct that news only comes from the UK at the beginning and middle of the month, I'm suggesting that odds are even we'll have an approval by the mid-April report, roughly 3 weeks from now. No guarantee it will happen then, but I really believe the UK knows our vaccine very well and won't hesitate to approve it well before their 150 day self imposed deadline.
I have us closing up 3 cents today. Each 15 day increment between UK announcements has roughly 10 trading days. I don't know that we could average 3 cents a day, but if we could we'd be at roughly 80 cents by Mid-April, $1.10 by May 1st, and $1.40 by mid-May when we hit the 150 day mark. I'm not suggesting this will happen, but perhaps it will be something close to this. I'm still of the belief that we should see $2 or more on approval, so unlike some stocks that go down on approval, I still strongly believe we'll move up.
Frankly I'd be fine if we only averaged 2 or even 1 cent a day from now to approval, it just makes the post approval move that much bigger. I certainly would think we'll be somewhat higher by approval, time will tell. Where we go after approval is largely in how it's perceived by the media, and how the company approaches it. I cannot remember the last time LP appeared at a Institutional or Brokerage conference, if that doesn't change post approval it may be slow growth with gradually increasing earnings and regulatory filings, but if only a week or two goes by between LP presentations, I believe we could see the movement to a major exchange by Fall, and perhaps double digit prices by the end of the year.
Gary
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
