Replies to post #250345 on Biotech Values

[zipjet]

My take on the GLP1's:

On Mounjaro I lost 23% in 6 months. (Over 260 to under 200)

My guess is the SE profile would cause 1/3rd of people to drop out.

I'm a guy that has always loved to eat and cook. But I think that six months on Mounjaro has changed my eating habits. I am gaining some weight but much slower than I expected.

Because of the long half-life of Mounjaro, you need fewer doses than the administration directions call for. After some experimentation I was still losing weight with one shot per month. I suspect even that could be longer. The SE profile is bad enough that you really do not want more doses even when you seriously want to lose more.

When I return from vacation in March, I will re-evaluate my weight and set new goals.

It is not certain that I will need to take Mounjaro again. I might have the tools (behavioral modification) to lose weight without it. I will NOT hesitate to use it again if I need it. But I will be surprised if I am as dependent on it as I was the first six months.

[Mufaso]

Catalent Aims to be a key "GLP1 CMO" a few years from now according to their JPM presentation and is investing heavily:
https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/jpm24-catalent-poised-take-top-spot-glp-1-drug-manufacturing-area

When it comes to GLP-1 drugs, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are the first pharmaceutical companies that come to mind. But behind the scenes, contract manufacturer Catalent stands in a solid spot to reap the benefits of the market's rapid expansion, CEO Alessandro Maselli said at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference.

This year, the manufacturer expects to pick up less than $100 million from producing GLP-1 products. Once it completes expansions that are already planned through 2026, Catalent stands to bring in more than $500 million from the field, according to the company's presentation.[

The actual presentation (link below) on slide 10 notes that the $500 million in revenue is "once planned capacity expansions through FY’26 are completed and running at scale" and also infers that post 2030 revenue will be multi billion dollar and that "estimate requires new capacity additions to be approved and completed."

https://s201.q4cdn.com/269710127/files/doc_presentations/2024/Jan/08/jp-morgan-ctlt-january-2024-v-final.pdf

[DewDiligence]

NVO’s holding company acquires CTLT for $63.50/sh cash—a_17%_premium to Friday’s close:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/novo-holdings-acquire-catalent-110000715.html

The impetus for the deal is to increase NVO’s manufacturing capacity for Wegovy.

The nominal EV of the deal is $11.5B ($16.5B including assumed debt).

[DewDiligence]

NVO announces $4.1B manufacturing expansion in North Carolina:

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/06/24/2903283/0/en/Novo-Nordisk-announces-4-1-billion-USD-investment-to-expand-US-manufacturing-capacity-adline.html

Novo Nordisk today announced plans to invest 4.1 billion US dollars…to build a second fill and finishing manufacturing facility in Clayton, North Carolina, and grow its ability to produce current and future injectable treatments for people with obesity and other serious chronic diseases.

NVO’s total 2024 cap-ex for manufacturing is expected to be $6.8B, up from $3.9B in 2023.