GLP-1 drugs will_be supply-constrained for_a_few_years, according to the NVO and LLY webcasts at JPM. All in-house and CMO capacity suitable for manufacturing injected GLP-1 drugs is already in service. Moreover, the eventual uptake of oral GLP-1 drugs will not ease the manufacturing bottleneck as much as people might think because the low bioavailability of the oral agents requires large amounts of API.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”