The likelihood that we need to run at least one more, bigger phase 3 for AD is high. It depends on how aggressive the FDA acts on our 2b/3 results. They'll be getting complete data, not the puzzlingly incomplete disclosures we've seen to date. The market doesn't like uncertainty, and right now there's a lot of it. We failed a co-primary, as a regulator would agree, and our biomarker data likely has some hair on it since its disclosure was poor (amount of brain size shrinkage and where, pTau levels, etc). For sure, our AD results show that our drug is worth continuing to pursue for AD. The question is, do the entire results justify AA? It's a big question.
Rett results have some issues. No dose response (true for our AD results too), lack of BTD, no time graphs, etc. The latter is a disclosure issue.
Biotech is risky. If one is just gambling on a biotech stock, fearful, and spinning conspiracy theories to cope, you gambled too much money and were better off with a mutual fund. Biotech is not for everyone.
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