Replies to post #436171 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[crescentmotor]

Rett is the trial that will make Anavex a successful company.

If EXCELLENCE passes TLD muster, success for AVXL (assuming follow-up FDA approval) is in the bag no matter what else happens. I have run the numbers--revenues ramp quickly for a best-in-class drug at $300,000 to $400,000 a treatment.

[Investor2014]

On what is your apparent 100% certainty based?

Rett will be approved

I think my 50%'ish chance of approval dependent on the Excellence outcome is generous.

Of course we will never know what probability estimate/guess was right, as in the end we just get a binary outcome of approved or rejected.