Replies to post #453310 on Tornado Alley (PROG)

[fuagf]

To link - Australia now in El Niño climate pattern, increasing bushfire risk, BOM says
"Summer Heat Waves Killed 61,000 in Europe Last Year, Study Says"
BoM warns it’s likely ‘this summer will be hotter than average and certainly hotter than the last three years’
* The BoM has finally declared an El Niño. What does it mean – and why did it take so long?
Donna Lu and Graham Readfearn
Tue 19 Sep 2023 15.40 AEST
[...]
Worst risk since black summer’: NSW south coast fire danger upgraded to ‘catastrophic’
[...]
Spring heatwave for eastern Australia ‘a heads-up’ of what’s to come, meteorologists say
[...]
The Victorian capital is forecast to clock eight days of 20C [68F] or warmer, beating the previous record of seven such days set in 1907 and 1987. Sydney’s five days of
28C [82.4F] or hotter weather would break the current record of four such days set in 1928, Domensino said. Canberra is expected to match its record of six days of 23C or warmer.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/14/spring-heatwave-for-eastern-australia-a-heads-up-of-whats-to-come-bom-says
Avg. Sept. about 70F. Tomorrow forecast 93. Will be third day in row over 90F.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172849196

And to add from within (the low F*g bowels of the dank, yet hottest unholiest of unholy hells) your bottom
"SEARCH: Absolutely Gobsmackingly Bananas
https://www.bing.com/news/search?q=Absolutely+Gobsmackingly+Bananas&qpvt=absolutely+gobsmackingly+bananas&FORM=EWRE"

LOLOL that does lllook and fffeel hot .. link - September shatters heat record, shocking even climate scientists

By Laura Chung
October 6, 2023 — 11.57am

With three graphs

Global temperature heat records have tumbled this year and September was no different, prompting leading climate scientists to describe the increases as “gobsmackingly bananas” and “Unnerving. Bewildering. Flabbergasting. Disquieting. Shocking. Mind-boggling”.

The United Nations’ chief climate body, the Copernicus Climate Change Service, has released data showing September was 0.93 degrees warmer than the 1991–2020 monthly average global temperature of 15.45 degrees.

This is a staggering 0.5 degrees warmer than the previous record, set in September 2020.


Sydney broke the month’s 23-year record on September 19.Credit: Dion Georgopoulos

The data also shows the first nine months of this year were 0.05 degrees warmer than the first nine months of 2016, the hottest year on record.

That year, the Great Barrier Reef experienced some of its worst coral bleaching and global temperatures soared during an El Nino event, which makes the weather hotter and drier.

Already this year June, July and August have been the hottest-ever consecutive months globally.

[Interactive compilation of line graphs showing sea surface temperatures]
https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-september-2023

Californian climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, who specialises in temperature records, posted on social media that the data was “absolutely gobsmackingly bananas”.

He added that the warm temperature was a combination of the rapid transition from wetter La Nina conditions over three years, as well as global warming led by greenhouse gas emissions.

Ed Hawkins, professor of climate science at the University of Reading, summarised the data as ..

Surprising. Astounding. Staggering. Unnerving. Bewildering. Flabbergasting. Disquieting. Gobsmacking. Shocking. Mind boggling. pic.twitter.com/hNtARXD20F

— Ed Hawkins (@ed_hawkins) October 5, 2023

.. : “Surprising. Astounding. Staggering. Unnerving. Bewildering. Flabbergasting. Disquieting. Gobsmacking. Shocking. Mind boggling”.

Column graph showing September global air surface temperature anomalies
https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-september-2023

Antarctica’s sea ice coverage also remains at a record low for this time of the year, about 9 per cent below the monthly average.

[Antarctic sea ice reaches an early winter record low in June 2023
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172503546]

With less sea ice, oceans will absorb more heat, further warming oceans. This can have longer-term impacts on future sea ice cycles. With less sea ice, the atmosphere and our oceans are also likely to warm up.

That’s because the sea ice helps reflect the heat from our oceans. Without it, oceans will absorb the heat, leading to increasing temperatures, prompting sea ice melt and leading to rising sea levels.

This can have severe impacts on the ecosystems that rely on Antarctic sea ice – like the krill population which migrating whales rely on for food, or penguins who rely on sea ice for breeding .. https://www.smh.com.au/link/follow-20170101-p5dykw .

[Line graph showing Antarctica sea ice extent]
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Climate Council research director Dr Simon Bradshaw said the data had many on edge about what the near future could hold.

Related Article
Explainer
Extreme weather .. https://www.smh.com.au/topic/extreme-weather-5wx
It’s official. An El Nino has been declared. What does that mean?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/it-s-official-an-el-nino-has-been-declared-what-does-that-mean-20230828-p5e030.html

“We are seeing records not just broken, but broken by big margins. This is deeply unsettling. One thing is clear - we must massively pick up the pace of action,” he said.

“It is dumbfounding that we are still approving new coal and gas projects in Australia while the planet faces an escalating climate crisis. Every new fossil fuel development increases the danger to all of us.”

https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/september-shatters-heat-record-shocking-even-climate-scientists-20231005-p5e9x5.html

[fuagf]

The world has experienced its hottest 12 months on record, and El Niño is set to drive temperatures higher

"September sizzled to records and was so much warmer than average scientists call it ‘mind-blowing’"

By climate reporter Jess Davis
Posted 9h ago, updated 6h ago


A report has warned the El Niño is only just beginning to raise temperatures. (ABC News: Cameron Schwarz)

Three interactives inside

The world has just experienced its hottest 12-month period in recorded history, with the average global temperature over 1.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels between November 2022 and October this year.

Analysis of international data, conducted by Climate Central scientists, found that human-induced climate change had significantly elevated temperatures around the world.

[Insert serious GOP (and others') negligence:]



The report warned that El Niño was only just beginning to boost temperatures and, based on historical patterns, most of the effect would be felt next year.

While Australia did not experience the same level of extremes compared to many other parts of the world, a hot and dry summer was expected.

[Interactive image]

The study found that a quarter of people around the world experienced a five-day heat wave that could be quantitatively linked to human-induced climate change.

Andrew Pershing, vice president for science at Climate Central, said the findings were important in the lead up to international climate negotiations being held at the end of the month.

"The whole point of this attribution science is to make the connection between what people are experiencing and climate change" he said.

"These impacts are only going to grow as long as we continue to burn coal, oil and natural gas — that is the ultimate driver of the changes that we're seeing around the planet."


[A moving graphic showing a bell curve of past temperatures compared to current
climate and how that leads to more extreme heat.]
The Climate Shift Index measures the effect carbon pollution is having on global
temperatures. (Supplied: Climate Central)

Climate fingerprints

To understand the role climate change has had on heat, the scientists used a peer reviewed methodology they have called the Climate Shift Index (CSI), which uses models to understand what daily temperatures would have been with no carbon pollution in the atmosphere.

--
"The challenge is that we have these global numbers of 1.3 degrees [Celsius] … super important numbers when we're thinking about
tracking the global climate — but this is not what people experience. We experience our daily weather," Dr Pershing said.
--

The CSI quantifies how much human-caused climate change has influenced the odds of people experiencing extreme daily temperatures locally.

It found most people on the planet had experienced temperatures very strongly affected by climate change.

[2nd interactive]
Hover to explore how temperatures in different parts of the world were made hotter by climate change

The list of countries most impacted by climate change was dominated by small islands and developing countries, particularly in the Caribbean and Indo-Pacific.

Joyce Kimutai, a principal meteorologist at the Kenya Meteorological Department, said increased temperatures were hitting vulnerable populations hardest.

"Looking at the climate shift index, we could see that close to 5.8 billion people actually, in this past year, experienced temperatures higher than the normal monthly averages," she said.

"But if you look closely, you find that it's actually more than half of the countries in all regions of the world."

The analysis found impacts in developed nations were also accelerating, with unusually high temperatures in the last six months hitting Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Indonesia in particular.

[A 3rd image untouchable...]

Heat streaks

World Weather Attribution lead scientist Friederike Otto said the events that had by far the strongest climate change fingerprints were heatwaves.

"For heatwaves, climate change is really an absolute game changer," Dr Otto said.

"The physics is very clear, because we have more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels, the atmosphere overall is warmer and in a warm atmosphere we see more heatwaves."

In the past 12 months, the analysis found that a quarter of the world's population experienced a five-day heat streak made at least two times more likely because of human-caused climate change.


In Phoenix, Arizona, people gathered at cooling centres during recent heatwaves. (ABC News: Cameron Schwarz)

The heatwaves in the United States were exceptionally bad, with Houston, Texas suffering through a 22-day heat streak.

Twelve cities in the US experienced streaks of five days or more, with an average Climate Shift Index of 5, meaning that climate change boosted the likelihood of that weather by at least a factor of five.

Cities in Indonesia were also hit hard by extreme heat waves, with both Jakarta and Tangerang experiencing a 17-day heat streak, that was also made five times more likely because of climate change.

An upward trend

The record-breaking temperatures around the world were in line with what scientists had predicted for greenhouse gas emission levels in the atmosphere, Climate Central's Dr Pershing said.


July 2023 was the warmest month in the earth's recorded history, with August a close second.
(Supplied: Climate Central)

"In some ways it is not surprising. We should expect to set records because we live on a warming planet," he said.

"We have too much carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, more and more every year that drives temperatures up."

While Dr Pershing said it was difficult to tease apart how much the normal weather cycles of La Niña and El Niño played, the record breaking 12-months was consistent with the long-term warming trend.

"That's something where I think further analysis will come out as people look retrospectively at this year," he said.

--
"What we expect is that next year we will have one of these anomalies where we stick up well above
that trend, and that will be once the full effect of El Niño really comes into play."
--

Meteorologist Dr Kimutai said there would continue to be yearly variations.

"They [temperatures] might be up and down, which is a feature of the atmosphere anyway, of the system," she said.

"But we are seeing a constant trend, a constant upward trend in the warming of the planet."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-09/mapping-worlds-hottest-year-global-temperatures-climate-central/103073800