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Tuesday, September 19, 2023 5:07:20 AM
Australia now in El Niño climate pattern, increasing bushfire risk, BOM says
"Summer Heat Waves Killed 61,000 in Europe Last Year, Study Says"
BoM warns it’s likely ‘this summer will be hotter than average and certainly hotter than the last three years’
* The BoM has finally declared an El Niño. What does it mean – and why did it take so long?
Donna Lu and Graham Readfearn
Tue 19 Sep 2023 15.40 AEST
First published on Tue 19 Sep 2023 15.01 AEST
UN’s weather agency, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), declared the onset of the climate pattern in July, but Australia’s weather agency had previously stopped short of making the declaration. Composite: Getty
The Bureau of Meteorology has declared that Australia is now in an El Niño climate pattern that will increase the chances of a hot and dry summer, and heighten the risk of dangerous bushfires.
Dr Karl Braganza, the BoM’s manager of climate services, confirmed the event was underway at a press conference on Tuesday afternoon, and said it was associated with “an increase in fire danger and extreme heat risk”.
The announcement comes amid soaring temperatures and extreme fire danger .. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/19/nsw-schools-closed-heatwave-australia-high-fire-danger-total-fire-bans .. across parts of south-east Australia. Total fire bans were declared for the New South Wales south coast and greater Sydney region on Tuesday, while bushfire evacuation orders .. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/17/residents-of-queensland-towns-emerald-and-beerwah-told-to-evacuate-as-bushfire-approaches .. were issued in parts of Queensland during the week.
The BoM has finally declared an El Niño. What does it mean – and why did it take so long?
Read more > https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/19/what-is-el-nino-weather-pattern-climate-event-australia-bushfires-temperature-summer
There was not yet a clear indication of how strong the El Niño would be, Braganza said. However, “the strength of an El Niño … doesn’t necessarily correspond to the severity of the rainfall deficiencies over Australia,” he said. “We have had weak events that have caused quite significant drought; we’ve had strong events that haven’t caused such severe conditions in the past.”
“In all likelihood, we can expect that this summer will be hotter than average and certainly hotter than the last three years.”
Braganza said modelling suggested the El Niño would persist until the end of summer.
The UN’s weather agency, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), declared the onset of an El Niño .. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/04/climate-heating-el-nino-has-arrived-and-threatens-lives-declares-un .. in July, after the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) did so in June.
The BoM has had Australia on an El Niño alert since June, saying there was a 70% chance of the system locking in place by the summer.
But until Tuesday, Australia’s weather agency had stopped short of making the declaration, pointing to a lack of tell-tale signs in the atmosphere.
El Niños are characterised by warmer than average sea surface temperatures in a central region of the equatorial Pacific. Those temperatures have been enough to see WMO and NOAA declare the climate pattern in place.
El Niño: what does it mean for Australia – and are more heatwaves and bushfires inevitable?
Read more > https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/09/el-nino-what-does-it-mean-for-australia-and-are-more-heatwaves-and-bushfires-inevitable
But the BoM had said the atmosphere was not reacting to the hotter temperatures. In an El Niño, the trade winds that blow from east to west over the Pacific weaken or even reverse.
“We have been waiting for the atmosphere to … couple with the oceans. The oceans have been in El Niño pattern for a couple of months. In the last two weeks, we have seen the atmosphere over the tropical Pacific respond to that pattern,” Braganza said. “That’s the sort of thing that sustains an El Niño event out until autumn.”
For the BoM to declare an El Niño, three of four criteria must be met. Until now, only two thresholds had been met. Braganza confirmed on Tuesday that a third, the southern oscillation index [http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/SOI-what.shtml ], met the required threshold.
Climate and bushfire experts have said that the drier and hotter conditions associated with El Niño will raise the risk of dangerous bushfires.
El Niño tends to result in hotter than average temperatures across most of southern Australia. For eastern Australia, nine of the 10 driest winter-spring periods on record have occurred during El Niño years.
The BoM has also confirmed that a positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) event is underway. The IOD is determined by differences in sea surface temperature between the eastern and western Indian Ocean.
A positive IOD usually results in decreased spring rainfall for central and south-east Australia. The climate phenomenon usually begins in late autumn or winter.
According to the Bureau, the risk of a significant fire danger season in south-east Australia is significantly higher after an El Niño year, particularly when combined with a positive IOD.
The previous three Australian summers have seen a triple La Niña .. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/la-nina – the cooler and wetter phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.
Those conditions have encouraged large amounts of grass and vegetation to grow that could become fuel for fires.
The Australasian Fire Authorities Council has issued an outlook for spring .. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/23/australian-bushfire-season-how-to-prepare .. showing increased risk of bushfires over large parts of Queensland and NSW and parts of Victoria and the Northern Territory.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/19/australia-el-nino-declaration-bom-bushfire-risk-summer-weather-temperature
**
Worst risk since black summer’: NSW south coast fire danger upgraded to ‘catastrophic’
Residents warned to be prepared on Tuesday as weather bureau predicts Wednesday could be even hotter with extreme fire danger
Daisy Dumas , Mostafa Rachwani and Australian Associated Press
Tue 19 Sep 2023 15.23 AEST
First published on Tue 19 Sep 2023 09.24 AEST
NSW RFS commissioner Rob Rogers said this week is ‘the worst risk we’ve faced since the black summer fires of 2019’. More than 20 schools are shut in NSW. Photograph: Brook Mitchell/Getty Images
The New South Wales far south coast has had its fire danger warning upgraded to “catastrophic” due to unexpectedly high winds, as soaring temperatures around the state prompted more than 20 schools to close.
The upgraded warning came as Sydney airport recorded its highest temperature for September since 2000 on Tuesday, according to preliminary data from the Bureau of Meteorology.
Preliminary data also shows that Observatory Hill has reached 34.6C, a BoM spokesperson said, matching its previous September record.
Bilpin is scarred by black summer’s ‘atom bomb’ bushfire – and some fear lessons have not been learned
Read more > https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/17/summer-bushfires-australia-bilpin-rural-fire-service-blue-mountains
Total fire bans were declared for the NSW south coast and greater Sydney region on Tuesday, marking the first total fire ban in Sydney since November 2020.
The New South Wales far south coast has had its fire danger warning upgraded to “catastrophic” due to unexpectedly high winds, as soaring temperatures around the state prompted more than 20 schools to close.
The upgraded warning came as Sydney airport recorded its highest temperature for September since 2000 on Tuesday, according to preliminary data from the Bureau of Meteorology.
Preliminary data also shows that Observatory Hill has reached 34.6C [94.28F], a BoM spokesperson said, matching its previous September record.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/19/nsw-schools-closed-heatwave-australia-high-fire-danger-total-fire-bans
**
Spring heatwave for eastern Australia ‘a heads-up’ of what’s to come, meteorologists say
[...]
The Victorian capital is forecast to clock eight days of 20C [68F] or warmer, beating the previous record of seven such days set in 1907 and 1987. Sydney’s five days of
28C [82.4F] or hotter weather would break the current record of four such days set in 1928, Domensino said. Canberra is expected to match its record of six days of 23C or warmer.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/14/spring-heatwave-for-eastern-australia-a-heads-up-of-whats-to-come-bom-says
Avg. Sept. about 70F. Tomorrow forecast 93. Will be third day in row over 90F.
"Summer Heat Waves Killed 61,000 in Europe Last Year, Study Says"
BoM warns it’s likely ‘this summer will be hotter than average and certainly hotter than the last three years’
* The BoM has finally declared an El Niño. What does it mean – and why did it take so long?
Donna Lu and Graham Readfearn
Tue 19 Sep 2023 15.40 AEST
First published on Tue 19 Sep 2023 15.01 AEST
UN’s weather agency, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), declared the onset of the climate pattern in July, but Australia’s weather agency had previously stopped short of making the declaration. Composite: Getty
The Bureau of Meteorology has declared that Australia is now in an El Niño climate pattern that will increase the chances of a hot and dry summer, and heighten the risk of dangerous bushfires.
Dr Karl Braganza, the BoM’s manager of climate services, confirmed the event was underway at a press conference on Tuesday afternoon, and said it was associated with “an increase in fire danger and extreme heat risk”.
The announcement comes amid soaring temperatures and extreme fire danger .. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/19/nsw-schools-closed-heatwave-australia-high-fire-danger-total-fire-bans .. across parts of south-east Australia. Total fire bans were declared for the New South Wales south coast and greater Sydney region on Tuesday, while bushfire evacuation orders .. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/17/residents-of-queensland-towns-emerald-and-beerwah-told-to-evacuate-as-bushfire-approaches .. were issued in parts of Queensland during the week.
The BoM has finally declared an El Niño. What does it mean – and why did it take so long?
Read more > https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/19/what-is-el-nino-weather-pattern-climate-event-australia-bushfires-temperature-summer
There was not yet a clear indication of how strong the El Niño would be, Braganza said. However, “the strength of an El Niño … doesn’t necessarily correspond to the severity of the rainfall deficiencies over Australia,” he said. “We have had weak events that have caused quite significant drought; we’ve had strong events that haven’t caused such severe conditions in the past.”
“In all likelihood, we can expect that this summer will be hotter than average and certainly hotter than the last three years.”
Braganza said modelling suggested the El Niño would persist until the end of summer.
The UN’s weather agency, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), declared the onset of an El Niño .. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/04/climate-heating-el-nino-has-arrived-and-threatens-lives-declares-un .. in July, after the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) did so in June.
The BoM has had Australia on an El Niño alert since June, saying there was a 70% chance of the system locking in place by the summer.
But until Tuesday, Australia’s weather agency had stopped short of making the declaration, pointing to a lack of tell-tale signs in the atmosphere.
El Niños are characterised by warmer than average sea surface temperatures in a central region of the equatorial Pacific. Those temperatures have been enough to see WMO and NOAA declare the climate pattern in place.
El Niño: what does it mean for Australia – and are more heatwaves and bushfires inevitable?
Read more > https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/09/el-nino-what-does-it-mean-for-australia-and-are-more-heatwaves-and-bushfires-inevitable
But the BoM had said the atmosphere was not reacting to the hotter temperatures. In an El Niño, the trade winds that blow from east to west over the Pacific weaken or even reverse.
“We have been waiting for the atmosphere to … couple with the oceans. The oceans have been in El Niño pattern for a couple of months. In the last two weeks, we have seen the atmosphere over the tropical Pacific respond to that pattern,” Braganza said. “That’s the sort of thing that sustains an El Niño event out until autumn.”
For the BoM to declare an El Niño, three of four criteria must be met. Until now, only two thresholds had been met. Braganza confirmed on Tuesday that a third, the southern oscillation index [http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/SOI-what.shtml ], met the required threshold.
Climate and bushfire experts have said that the drier and hotter conditions associated with El Niño will raise the risk of dangerous bushfires.
El Niño tends to result in hotter than average temperatures across most of southern Australia. For eastern Australia, nine of the 10 driest winter-spring periods on record have occurred during El Niño years.
The BoM has also confirmed that a positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) event is underway. The IOD is determined by differences in sea surface temperature between the eastern and western Indian Ocean.
A positive IOD usually results in decreased spring rainfall for central and south-east Australia. The climate phenomenon usually begins in late autumn or winter.
According to the Bureau, the risk of a significant fire danger season in south-east Australia is significantly higher after an El Niño year, particularly when combined with a positive IOD.
The previous three Australian summers have seen a triple La Niña .. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/la-nina – the cooler and wetter phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.
Those conditions have encouraged large amounts of grass and vegetation to grow that could become fuel for fires.
The Australasian Fire Authorities Council has issued an outlook for spring .. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/23/australian-bushfire-season-how-to-prepare .. showing increased risk of bushfires over large parts of Queensland and NSW and parts of Victoria and the Northern Territory.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/19/australia-el-nino-declaration-bom-bushfire-risk-summer-weather-temperature
**
Worst risk since black summer’: NSW south coast fire danger upgraded to ‘catastrophic’
Residents warned to be prepared on Tuesday as weather bureau predicts Wednesday could be even hotter with extreme fire danger
Daisy Dumas , Mostafa Rachwani and Australian Associated Press
Tue 19 Sep 2023 15.23 AEST
First published on Tue 19 Sep 2023 09.24 AEST
NSW RFS commissioner Rob Rogers said this week is ‘the worst risk we’ve faced since the black summer fires of 2019’. More than 20 schools are shut in NSW. Photograph: Brook Mitchell/Getty Images
The New South Wales far south coast has had its fire danger warning upgraded to “catastrophic” due to unexpectedly high winds, as soaring temperatures around the state prompted more than 20 schools to close.
The upgraded warning came as Sydney airport recorded its highest temperature for September since 2000 on Tuesday, according to preliminary data from the Bureau of Meteorology.
Preliminary data also shows that Observatory Hill has reached 34.6C, a BoM spokesperson said, matching its previous September record.
Bilpin is scarred by black summer’s ‘atom bomb’ bushfire – and some fear lessons have not been learned
Read more > https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/17/summer-bushfires-australia-bilpin-rural-fire-service-blue-mountains
Total fire bans were declared for the NSW south coast and greater Sydney region on Tuesday, marking the first total fire ban in Sydney since November 2020.
The New South Wales far south coast has had its fire danger warning upgraded to “catastrophic” due to unexpectedly high winds, as soaring temperatures around the state prompted more than 20 schools to close.
The upgraded warning came as Sydney airport recorded its highest temperature for September since 2000 on Tuesday, according to preliminary data from the Bureau of Meteorology.
Preliminary data also shows that Observatory Hill has reached 34.6C [94.28F], a BoM spokesperson said, matching its previous September record.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/19/nsw-schools-closed-heatwave-australia-high-fire-danger-total-fire-bans
**
Spring heatwave for eastern Australia ‘a heads-up’ of what’s to come, meteorologists say
[...]
The Victorian capital is forecast to clock eight days of 20C [68F] or warmer, beating the previous record of seven such days set in 1907 and 1987. Sydney’s five days of
28C [82.4F] or hotter weather would break the current record of four such days set in 1928, Domensino said. Canberra is expected to match its record of six days of 23C or warmer.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/14/spring-heatwave-for-eastern-australia-a-heads-up-of-whats-to-come-bom-says
Avg. Sept. about 70F. Tomorrow forecast 93. Will be third day in row over 90F.
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