Replies to post #161730 on Lightwave Logic Inc (LWLG)

[tedpeele]

Dr Lebby's Missed Goals
As shown in the first item the company has a long history of making and badly missing goals. It hasn't been one goal each year. They have led investors to expect all kinds of specific achievements, which typically are delayed and never seem to lead to commercialization. That's not to say they haven't made progress or done some impressive things. A world record using polymer chromophores is impressive. But, in the big picture, one wonders why they have had such a terrible track record.

For some, ALL activity Pre-Dr Lebby is irrelevant. Cautious investors may want to think that through carefully, as this didn't suddenly become a new company when Dr Lebby became CEO. In fact he had already been with the company - while it was making projections that it kept missing - as a director since August 2015. He became CEO in May, 2017. The 10k file in 2016, 2017, and 2018 ALL retained the wording about plans to commercialize their product that same year. The last year was when Dr Lebby was CEO.

Nevertheless people tend to give the company a pass, and Dr. Lebby a pass for such "oversights". They say "this time it will be different". Well, let's see:

Dr Lebby laid out the following goals at the 2021 ASM - the one that got investors very excited because he talked about working with foundries:

1. PolymerPlus Chips 70GH < 3V -> tested silicon photonic chips. In 2022 he confirmed they have tested some chips
2. Packaged PolymerPlus Prototypes -> packaged prototypes for sampling: In 2022 he said "in progress". That sounds more like a MISS than a HIT.
3. Qualified Foundry and Packaging Partners -> Establish design rules, freeze process. In 2022 he said "we have qualified partners". What? Did they establish design freeze process or not? I assume they had qualified partners before the year began..So sounds like a possible MISS.
4. Reliability, stability, and hermeticity testing -> Perform QA and reliability testing. In 2022 he said "we are continually testing".
5. Qualification of materials/chips -> QA and reliability testing results. In 2022 he said "QA and reliability testing ongoing". That doesn't sound like "results". MISS.
6. Live traffic trials in customer system -> Reliability qualification. In 2022 he said "we are engaged with customers". This is evasive. It sounds like a MISS.
7. Commercial agreement with customer -> Agreement to supply product. In 2022 he said "in discussion". MISS
8. Qualification for approved vendor list (AVL) -> Addition to customers AVL. In 2022 he said "in discussion". MISS.

At the ASM Dr Lebby admitted to missing the last 2 goals - the most important one being a commercial aggrement. HOWEVER, it appears the only ones they HIT were #1 and #4, with #4 being very easy to meet. ALL of others either were definitely missed or sound much like a MISS. So, their track record with foundries in the first 12 months was not very successful.

2021 Goals link:

23:46 mark
2022 Review of 2021 Goals link:

41:15 mark


Dr Lebby laid out these goals during ASM 2022 for the next 12 months:
1. Polymer Plus Prototypes -> Beta/Qualification plan
2. Polymer Slot Prototypes -> Beta/Qualification plan
3. Establish deal with partner -> Announcement of partner
4. Establish deal with foundry -> Announcement of partner
5. Qualification of product -> Published data/specification
6. Licensing of polymers -> 1 licensee
7. Technology transfer -> 1 tech transfer to manufacturing

So, how well did they do? Dr Lebby decided to NOT REVIEW THE 12 MONTH GOALS as 2023 ASM!!!!! Who does that?

Investors had been waiting for 12 months to find out how much the work with Foundries had progressed, and while Dr Lebby spent a great deal of time during the 2023 ASM discussing how well their technology fits into Foundries, and even estimating a small commercial rollout sometime in 2024, he completely side-stepped a review. He provided a reason: They had attained commercial acceptance.

This reason given is IMO highly suspect, and I will discuss it below. Even if it is correct, it doesn't suddenly erase the prior year's goals...

Here's what seems most true:

The ONLY goal above which the company has unequivocably confirmed is part of #3, and all of #6 - they announced a deal with a partner to license their polymer to that customer. Since none of the others have been clearly confirmed the default conclusion is that they missed them all. Re #5 - they referenced a "data sheet" during the ASM with various specificiation on it, but they didn't provide any detail on it or indicate that it is qualified. Regarding the deal they announced, it was as vague as possible and may investors now believe that it had nothing to do with the foundries they have ben working with. Rather it is believed by some - and myself - to be with another small company looking to innovate products - Polariton. That's not exactly the kind of partner investors thought was meant when the goals were laid out in May of 2022.

We KNOW some of the goals were missed so the reason of attaining commercial acceptance doesn't automatically remove them, or their value. The final conclusion is that nearly all of the 2022 goals were missed, especially as they pertain to Foundries they are or were working with.

Additional goals were indicated in a slide last December:

As shown, Polymer Slot Initial Chip Scale Packaging, Reliability Results, and ALD results were to occur in 1H23, and LIfetime results in 2H23. Polymer Plus ALD were to occur in 1H23, and Lifetime and Package results in 2H23. NONE of these have been confirmed to date.

And in the December 2022 shareholder letter:

Further, we are advancing our poling techniques and processes toward full wafer poling. We are evaluating partners for wafer-based fully automated poling that will be ideal for high-volume production.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lightwave-logic-issues-shareholder-letter-and-provides-corporate-update-301705656.html This critical technology for scaling wasn't even mentioned in the ASM 2023!

One must conclude that Dr Lebby's ability to set and meet goals has been sub-par in the last couple of years. This brings into question his credibility re setting and achieving goals - especially as they pertain to working with the Foundries. He himself has indicated that the company is very much at the mercy of the Foundry -- they do the work when they do the work..Normally timelines are 6-9 months, so after 2 years it makes one wonder much one can rely on Dr Lebby's future goals. But it also causes one to ask "how close are they?".
2022 Goals link:

42:24 mark