Replies to post #161732 on Lightwave Logic Inc (LWLG)

[tedpeele]

2022 Goals and the Vague Commercial Agreement - a FARCE?

The 2021 and 2022 goals are primarily focused on achievements working with Foundries.

On the day of 2023 ASM, they announce a commercial agreement for supply materials. The PR doesn't say it is related to the work they are doing with the Foundries. https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/LWLG/news/story?e&id=2538954

If the agreement had been with a partner who would be utilizing one of these foundries, that means they have had achieved all of their goals with that foundry, or that it was anticipated by the partner that they would be doing so at some time in the future. However, when given the opportunity Dr Lebby never validated any specific achievements with foundries - re PDK finalization, scalability, or even general - ready for commercialization. NONE of his comments were about being commercially ready. They were about having made progress with the foundries during the year. Some were not very positive sounding - he is clearly hedging in his answer:

I'll be honest with you, working with foundries is, yes, they love using the technology, and it's not difficult for them to utilize our designs because we are compatible with silicon processing. But they're doing the fabrication and not us. It takes time to make sure that they're following the recipes correctly. But what I can say is that the chips we're getting back from the foundries are performing really well. We've been very happy with that progress.
I will also say that some foundries are better than others, and you would expect that anyway. Not all foundries are the same. Not all foundries have the same type of teams and take the same approach. There is some variability.

From the transcript found here: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172010080&txt2find=transcript

"the chips we're getting back from foundries" That doesn't sound like any different than the message 9 months ago. What about qualification? PDK finalizaion? High volume production trials? Proof of scalability? Number of units? NONE Of that.

The conclusion is clear: NONE OF THE FOUNDRIES ARE READY FOR COMMERCIALIZATION. For those that dispute this, here's an exact quote where he admits this:

But I'm not going to go into the number of foundries like last year, because I think it's much more important now as we're much closer to commercialization.

"much closer" than last year..who really knows how close that is, but it doesn't matter. They are NOT ready.

The industry therefore cannot be seen as giving their blessing, or "accepting" Lightwave's solution. The "industry" is the large manufacturers, transceiver companies, technology partners, and end users. If the Foundries aren't ready for commercialization, then the "industry" certainly isn't anywhere close.

WHY IS THIS AN ISSUE?

Because commercial acceptance is the reason Dr Lebby gave for not addressing the prior year goals or setting new goals, particularly with regard to progress with Foundries:

Unidentified Company Representative

One other question on the presentation. You didn't really cover anything as far as the goals and—previous goals and forward goals for next year. One thing that comes to mind is the tech transfer agreement. Can you tell us what is left to finalize the PDK and get a tech transfer agreement? You had spoken about joint PRs at some point. Can you give us some indication as to where we stand and what might be needed still in order to get the finalization of a PDK and what goals we might have for next year?

Michael Lebby

Last year and the year before, I gave yearly goals. I think that's okay if you're pre-commercial. But what we gave here is we gave more of a licensing roadmap. That's more what you would expect from a commercial company. Doing yearly goals, I think, should step aside to real commercial goals.

And earlier he said re the PR:

The impact of this is commercial market acceptance. That's really the impact. We have to look at what's really important with the press release this morning. We made some commercial traction. The market accepts what we have

As I write this on Aug 15, 2023 - 10 weeks after the commercial announcement, there is not yet a purchase request for material. There is no sign that the agreement is evidence of market acceptance, and we know the Foundries aren't yet commercially ready.

This brings into question Dr Lebby's decision to not review the Foundry goals and set new ones. Instead of using the vague commercial PR as proof of market acceptance

Could there be another, much simpler reason for Dr Lebby's silence and evasiveness? Could it be that a review of goals would reveal that they really didn't achieve much progress with foundries?

Notice too the following:In the past 2 years Dr Lebby went through pre-written questions and answers in the Investors section:

In 2021 he covered 14 questions, taking 3 1/2 minutes beginning at minute mark 24:07
In 2022 he covered 26 questions, taking 8 minutes 47 seconds, beginning at 44:10
In 2023 he covered ZERO pre-written questions.

No-one really knows how close or far away commercialization with foundries is, and this is critical because without that there will be no ubiquity.

Overcoming technical hurdles, cost hurdles, and being able to ramp up to high volume (scaling) all MUST happen in order to be viable commercially. Back in 2017 Dr Lebby showed a graph with over 20 major roadblocks to commercial viability.

42 minute mark. How many of those are still remaining, unsolved, that Lightwave MUST solve before true industry/market acceptance? What did Dr Lebby mean when he said this about scaling, when asked at this year's ASM?:

In terms of scaling, we are much more comfortable this year with scaling than we were last year

He won't tell us, he will no longer be accountable to us.

What's the upshot re Foundries and their true proximity to commercialization? Dr Lebby is basically saying "Trust Me we got this.". Why should we?: Given his rather large misses on Foundry Goals in 2021, apparent large misses in 2022, his claim to commercial acceptance in the absence of any corroborating evidence, his sudden decision to clam up entirely regarding where things stand with Foundry work, his stating at best things are progressing in certain ways and that they are more comfortable with things like scaling than they were last year (what does that mean?), while simultaneously being dependent on them to act only when they want to, a 12-18 month of 'kitchen recipe" issues - given all of these things - knowing that each foundry cycle takes 6-9 months, should we Trust that they are on the verge of being on the verge of commercial success, much less of being commercially viable at all?

[prototype_101]

Ridiculous!!! just more teddy bear lies & deceptions!! you are WRONG as usual!! what part of the PDK's being COMPLETE & SCALABLE are you NOT understanding!!!!

Lebby's been working with at least SEVEN Foundries PDK's for 2 years now, the latest reports from these Foundries that Investors have gotten from Lebby (including pictures) are,

1) the chips are coming back with OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE

2) the Yields are EXTREMELY HIGH

Absolutely LOVE this Lebby quote, EO POLYMERS CAN BE EASILY HANDLED IN STANDARD SILICON FABS USING STANDARD PDK’s

Source is ECOC Market Focus October 2-4, 2023 Lebby presentation
https://www.ecocexhibition.com/visit/market-focus/market-focus-2023-timetable/market-focus-session-information/


Also absolutely LOVE this Lebby quote at 11:30 marker he said "our technology fits really uniquely into Silicon Foundries and WE CAN SCALE INTO VOLUME QUITE EASILY AND EFFECTIVELY, and our technology as you can see from the horizontal bar of this graph, we have a very high figure of merit (FOM) which means we have really great metrics in terms of bringing the voltage down to save power, high bandwidth to send lots of information at higher speeds, and to have the technology at a very small size"

Planet MicroCap Showcase: Vancouver 2023
Date: Wednesday, September 6, 2023
Time: 12:30 p.m. Eastern time Webcast Link: https://www.webcaster4.com/Webcast/Page/2986/48806


For the record, I talked to Lebby one-on-one at the ASM and he reiterated how sensitive all the data from Foundries work had become for competitive reasons, and for those who saw the ASM encore performance Lebby gave in Europe the day after the ASM, Lebby actually spent more time discussing how important it was now to keep secrecy on the Foundries progress, but he assured everybody things were doing great, and investors should take note of the output of the chips from these Foundries as their direct evidence of this fact, as Lebby told investors the chips are coming back showing great performance and the Yields have been exceedingly high