While I'm not prepared to make the recession case, two items I noticed yesterday are that credit card debt increased at a record pace in Q4 '22, up $61B to nearly $1T and that more serious inflation showed up again at the CPI and PPI level after a six month hiatus. When we factor in the likely resumption of student loan payments later this year, a less certain end to the rise in over-night rates and falling home sales it makes for a somewhat troubling stew of financial issues for Americans.
Today we have yet another data point from CAT (#msg-171784334) that argues against a near-term economic downturn. True, CAT is benefitting to some degree from government infrastructure projects and from the mining boom to support the worldwide uptake of electric vehicles. Still, CAT can’t entirely be dismissed as a bellwether from the global economy.
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