While I'm not prepared to make the recession case, two items I noticed yesterday are that credit card debt increased at a record pace in Q4 '22, up $61B to nearly $1T and that more serious inflation showed up again at the CPI and PPI level after a six month hiatus. When we factor in the likely resumption of student loan payments later this year, a less certain end to the rise in over-night rates and falling home sales it makes for a somewhat troubling stew of financial issues for Americans.
“It is remarkable how much long term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.” – Charlie Munger