Your original statement was using CAT as a bellwether dealing in recessionary times.
Actually, my contention was that CAT is a bellwether for ascertaining whether a recession is coming—and, by implication, a bellwether for how severe such a recession might be.
I appreciate your responses in this thread, but I don’t think you’ve made your case that CAT should not be an important data point for those making economic forecasts.