"In either case Merck’s partnership with Moderna is 10 years out from anything meaningful"
Agreed. The clock is however ticking for Merck with Keytruda off patent in 2028, their combo with Moderna cannot address this but we meet our combo trial primary endpoint in August 2024 :-)
$250 million is nothing to Merck and NWBO would never give up anything for only $250 million.
Had NWBO elected to sell 50% of -L for $250M back in 2015 when the s*** hit the fan , it would have worked out very well.
Though future is cut in half, shares outstanding would be 10% what they are today. So just on that, PPS would be 5X.
But they also would have had cash to run the Direct P2 which might have added to value as many longs back then though it would be approved by now had trials not been stopped for lack of cash.
But that math only works for commoners. LP,, with her 20% true-up, has different math.