I arrived I think after the ‘missed’ timeline right around that time so I don’t have the benefit of knowing exactly how expectations were set prior to that and so forth. I loosely tracked the stock prior to then but since the price gone up so far I had minimal interest.
I may need to go back and review What he said about the foundry’s at ASM 2021, because people, especially smart people, tend to be very good at rationalizing. Not always so good at making accurate judgments. So maybe that’s my next project as I am making accusations that you are saying are not true. And some others here also.
I have a different interpretation of the progress with foundries, after having reviewed the last two years ASM presentations.
In May 2021, it is clear Dr Lebby said they were working with multiple foundries and a goal was the PDK. He starts talking about that around 14m mark. It is also clear they didn't just start in May 2021, but had had various levels of interactions for some time:
In May 2022, he starts around the 30 minute mark, and mentions that everybody knows that results normally take around 6-9 months, and in order to mitigate risk they partnered with multiple foundries in case one is slower or has problems.
He also makes clear there WERE problems -- and that great care is needed to minimize mistakes at the foundry level. He DOES mention supply problems but says they accounted only for a couple of months.
The most reasonable conclusion is HAD THINGS GONE AS PLANNED we still should have expected results -- meaning a PDK -- within 6-9 months of May 2021 (ie by year end 2021 at the latest) with at least ONE of the foundries. They likely had problems with several if not ALL of the foundries they are working with.
So, my conclusion is still that things are taking longer than anticipated because of some kind of problem involving the technology. Since everyone knows results should take 6-9 months, whatever the problem(s) have been must be pretty serious. Since reliability and stability have long been a difficult issue I suspect that it is related to that.
If they can't get one 'result' -- ie a finalized PDK -- for even one of the foundries by the end of the year, it will be more clear to more people that something is seriously wrong and all bets are off for being able to predict ANY timeline to commercialization with any certainty at all, since already they have pushed back expectations significantly. Longs who argue that isn't the case are not looking at the issue realistically IMO.
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