Replies to post #359516 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[JWC3]

It’s gotta be 100%!

Just look at the P2a AD results. P3 is early ALZ and not the Mild to Moderate ALZ!

[Investor2014]

I think we need to add a by how much A2-73 might beat SOC and for what proportion of the inclusion/exclusion criteria patients.

First let’s assume that the TLR is in fact stat sig positive.

Then assume that in the 50mg target dose cohort about 20% of patients remain at least stable over 48 weeks. That in my estimate would beat SOC almost regardless the of the A2-73 response in the rest the of dosed patients.

For that to occur there is probably no more than a 50/50 chance, which are pretty good odds considering the reward.

Anything beyond that is a big bonus.

[abew4me]

Well, the current success rate is 99.4% against us.

However, the success rate was 100% against us when we started the Avatar trial...and look what happened to that record. BOOM...our P3 Avatar trial crushed it!

Same can be said for our PDD P2 trial. How many BPs have failed to develop an effective drug to treat PDD and reverse the deteriorating motor skills at the same time? Answer: 100%

So, based on our track record of 100% success where others have failed...I'm going to give us a 99.4% chance of successfully achieving the primary and secondary end points.

I know. I know. I'm being too optimistic. But hey, I'm just following the science!

Cheers.