Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Investor2014]

I think we need to add a by how much A2-73 might beat SOC and for what proportion of the inclusion/exclusion criteria patients.

First let’s assume that the TLR is in fact stat sig positive.

Then assume that in the 50mg target dose cohort about 20% of patients remain at least stable over 48 weeks. That in my estimate would beat SOC almost regardless the of the A2-73 response in the rest the of dosed patients.

For that to occur there is probably no more than a 50/50 chance, which are pretty good odds considering the reward.

Anything beyond that is a big bonus.