Replies to post #375977 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[MI Dendream]

There once was a day where journalists were only to be trusted if and when they suported their statements by others and based on facts....oops that still does exist and it is called medicine. Anyone with an appreciation of physicians understands what I am saying.

Again. I instruct you to read everything I say with doubt as I am hiding behind an alias. Please do not take anything that I say as advice no matter how persuasive I may seem because I am just providing opinions based on assumptions and I try to question what I do not know as fact myself. You must read back to the origin of this chain and you must apply everything within to and to everything connected to it in the future, written by me of course as I cannot verify Iwasadiver whether or not not I believe the doctor. You must also apply my instructions, however, to the above mentioned alias unless that alias instructs you otherwise as I assume he too is not providing me advice professionally or otherwise. Period. All connotations included as to protect both he and I. I am not an attorney and request any statements written by me and attached to me by iwasadiver or vice versa to be interpreted in good faith. Unless otherwise indicated by the above mentioned alias.

[MI Dendream]

I have not read any responses since my last post. I am taking a brief break from a busy day. I noticed my post was taken down and do not understand why, but will repost since it took effort. I ahve removed what may be questionable to our administrators. I may return, I may not..

When one looks at 2017 and compares it to 2018 and reads the code that Dr. L left for us all to learn many, many things. For example, I once proved that the other Linda did not reach her OS goal any time close to when people thought that she did...

Fact 2017 median OS and 2018 median OS are equal at approximately 23.2 mo
Fact the last 100 patents ‘yet to come’ are enriched to 77% treatment from 66% treatment, more if you cut that to 50.
Fact the two curves begin to separate at 2 years, thus mOS is not a fair comparison between arms but KM25% maybe and the choice is arbitrary.
Fact 3 year survival improves by 4+% when about 93 of these 100 cross three years, about seven remain who will slightly improve this number.
Fact one plots the future which is actually the current by plotting the current at 30 mo where x% live and then the median of that group (i.e.m x/2%) at 56.4 mo and so on to give you 2017 and 2018 full plots which can also be compared through inference, but the final 100 are coming down the pike.
Fact the curves separate more and more as time marches from 2 years to 3years on KM which leads one to reasonably conclude this either flattens or continues to improve.
Estimated Fact 17-19% of the 2017/18 combined cohort reach 5 years...blow your mind yet?
Probability 24.2% at 3years vs 28.6% at three years, but measured over 8 years is probably close to significantly different.
Now separate early from late...blow your mind?

Something else likely happened among the 23 of the final 100 that did not happen to the 33 of the first 100. Comprende? This makes these two groups more different than they first appear. Now comprende?

You must read my statements attached to this chain and apply to the entire chain. You must not trust people hiding behind alias. You must trust your own heart and make your own decisions or seek counsel from a professional with proper training to provide you with such counsel. I am not that person for you.

[MI Dendream]

Sorry to link to myself, but I want everyone to click back to the beginning, read that post and apply all statements within. Including the fact that I am not giving anyone anywhere investment advice. You must invest at your own risk.

Now how much is DCVAX worth, there are many ways to model this. One is to look at QUALItTY of life-years gained. In order to do this one needs to looks at costs to treat as well as costs avoided and income earned. Then one must count years and factor in quality. It is quite abstract, the result.

Now, you could look at reasonable comparators, which I agree with but also need to factor in quality which in this case is efficacy and safety, as well as size of market. GBM is a rare disease. You should in all fairness, factor in free and discounted drug in this equation at the end. Bridge program inclusive.

You can do the QALY minus the Qualy part and do a straight up PE model and debate salary earned and where to obtain costs avoided. The easiest answer to that is most unfair to industry and that is Kaiser Permanente. Or you could use them and basically double it. I don’t have the data to do this anyway, I could throw out assumptions and boy can I brainstorm.

So lets talk efficacy first. At 3years LL tells us that about 15% Placebos will survive (eyeball completely). She also tells us that in 2017 when 2/3 rds of the original set received treatment and the other 1/3 received placebo, mostly (a few caveats) and 24.2% survive . But in 2018, about 18 months later, when an enriched cohort (both ways possibly) adds into this mix we see a 28.6% survival, up 4.4% placebos now having been treated with DCVAX for 1.5 years. Then the remaining few pass 3 yrs boosting this a couple decimal points. Median OS stayed the same but separation began at 2 years.

(1DCVAX + 2dcvax)100 + 231( 2/3D + 1/3P)/331 = 28.6
(2/3D +1/3P) = 24.2

So how well does DCVAX work? well a good guess would be 38.72%, assuming the above is true and DCVAX performs the same throughout and a simple equation can approximate KM approximation which it can, or do EX and I need to repeat an old argument. Put that in your eyes, then in your brain, and remember that I do have bias which may cloud my vision. You also need to assume that those who switch over before progression behave the same as the last 32.

Now, back to the question at hand. What do you price DCVax at? One thing to contempltate is that I will use US dollars and we can debate if we simply use exchange rates or if it is more ethical to apply discounts.

DRUG - ANNUAL COST (WAC per Dr. google) - 1st INDICATION - Rare? - EFFICACY/SAFETY - Multiple indications?

Keytruda - $100k - Melanoma - No - Low to Moderate - Yes
Opdivo - $150k - NSCLC - No? - Low to Moderate - Yes
Kymriah - $475k x1 - DBLC - Yes - Hmmm, Low - Yes-ish
Yescarta - $373k x1 - NHL - Maybe - Low - Yes-ish
Just for giggles
Exondis51 - ridiculous thereafter but $750k per year is the WAC

DCVAX - ???? Per course - GBM and rGBM - Yes - High - Yes

These are just my opinion. I have bias. I hide behind an alias. You should not trust people who do so. You should trust your heart and make your own decisions for yourself, especially investment decisions. I may be making things up or I may be delusional

If you do not think me delusional then perhaps join me from 28:40 to 35:30