NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[MI Dendream]

Sorry to link to myself, but I want everyone to click back to the beginning, read that post and apply all statements within. Including the fact that I am not giving anyone anywhere investment advice. You must invest at your own risk.

Now how much is DCVAX worth, there are many ways to model this. One is to look at QUALItTY of life-years gained. In order to do this one needs to looks at costs to treat as well as costs avoided and income earned. Then one must count years and factor in quality. It is quite abstract, the result.

Now, you could look at reasonable comparators, which I agree with but also need to factor in quality which in this case is efficacy and safety, as well as size of market. GBM is a rare disease. You should in all fairness, factor in free and discounted drug in this equation at the end. Bridge program inclusive.

You can do the QALY minus the Qualy part and do a straight up PE model and debate salary earned and where to obtain costs avoided. The easiest answer to that is most unfair to industry and that is Kaiser Permanente. Or you could use them and basically double it. I don’t have the data to do this anyway, I could throw out assumptions and boy can I brainstorm.

So lets talk efficacy first. At 3years LL tells us that about 15% Placebos will survive (eyeball completely). She also tells us that in 2017 when 2/3 rds of the original set received treatment and the other 1/3 received placebo, mostly (a few caveats) and 24.2% survive . But in 2018, about 18 months later, when an enriched cohort (both ways possibly) adds into this mix we see a 28.6% survival, up 4.4% placebos now having been treated with DCVAX for 1.5 years. Then the remaining few pass 3 yrs boosting this a couple decimal points. Median OS stayed the same but separation began at 2 years.

(1DCVAX + 2dcvax)100 + 231( 2/3D + 1/3P)/331 = 28.6
(2/3D +1/3P) = 24.2

So how well does DCVAX work? well a good guess would be 38.72%, assuming the above is true and DCVAX performs the same throughout and a simple equation can approximate KM approximation which it can, or do EX and I need to repeat an old argument. Put that in your eyes, then in your brain, and remember that I do have bias which may cloud my vision. You also need to assume that those who switch over before progression behave the same as the last 32.

Now, back to the question at hand. What do you price DCVax at? One thing to contempltate is that I will use US dollars and we can debate if we simply use exchange rates or if it is more ethical to apply discounts.

DRUG - ANNUAL COST (WAC per Dr. google) - 1st INDICATION - Rare? - EFFICACY/SAFETY - Multiple indications?

Keytruda - $100k - Melanoma - No - Low to Moderate - Yes
Opdivo - $150k - NSCLC - No? - Low to Moderate - Yes
Kymriah - $475k x1 - DBLC - Yes - Hmmm, Low - Yes-ish
Yescarta - $373k x1 - NHL - Maybe - Low - Yes-ish
Just for giggles
Exondis51 - ridiculous thereafter but $750k per year is the WAC

DCVAX - ???? Per course - GBM and rGBM - Yes - High - Yes

These are just my opinion. I have bias. I hide behind an alias. You should not trust people who do so. You should trust your heart and make your own decisions for yourself, especially investment decisions. I may be making things up or I may be delusional

If you do not think me delusional then perhaps join me from 28:40 to 35:30