Replies to post #148898 on Cytodyn Inc (CYDY)

[Leronlimab4DaWin]

First thing I recall on CD12 that stuck me was someone claiming to have advance mathematics degrees going into great detail while their statistical models unequivocally “proved” CD12 was a failure... The multiple MS in mathematics is impressive if true, but hard to verify the validity of such a claim when the person’s identity is unknown... Nevertheless, I reviewed most of this individuals posts related to statistics and actually found them very convincing as a novice of statistical analysis. However, I’ve been told using “absolute” terms in statistics are normally frowned upon...

The math is quite easy. They need > 31% mortality rate for severe-to-critical SoC arm in order to achieve a p-value < 0.05. That math is simple. The comparable study is more of an art but it seems very obvious that most recent critical SoC arms have a mortality rate of 30-35% and severe has 10-15%. So it seems impossible to have a severe-to-critical SoC mortality > 31%. It is very easy math.

[justdafactss]

So what ARE the bullish views of CYDY?

They're certainly not comments about advance mathematics degrees, leronlimab is saline, or Buyer’s Strike, opinions, or FUD correct?

I'd be interested to see the bullish views of CYDY and why its always a defense instead of offense played. Offense = actual achievement, not PRing possible achievements. Its high to for CYDY to put some proverbial points on the board correct?

[SF Anony]

Riley - Thank you for your willingness to share your due-dilligence and research regarding your investment thesis. It is helpful for those of us who also like to constantly question and re-evaluate our own theses. So far, my re-evaluations have led to continued confidence in my investment.

[3X Charm]

Another great post Smiley. I will reiterate the confirmation of statistical and clinical significance based on available data by a high level former CDC executive who has recently taken a senior leadership position at a major think tank heading up their “ Big Data in Heath Sciences” department: “He knows a thing or two because he has seen a thing or two”.

[Maverick0408]

All great points and I completely agree with your observations. They are hurting their own credibility by making some of the claims you point to. Humility, listening and learning mindset is key to a long, successful career in whatever you do. The reality is 90% of biotechs fail and therefore shorts have it easy, IMO. Even without any DD, they are likely to be right 9 out of 10 times. That’s why small biotech are one of the most heavily shorted space. However, I will point out that the one that succeeds is a home run, to put it conservatively! 20-30x returns, if not more. The ones I think are going to hurt some of the shorts the most over the next couple of months are CYDY, NWBO and likely CVM.

Technology and social media is a great equalizer! Zoom, YT, FB, Twitter, etc have made it easy for just about everyone to follow science talks, publications, symposia, etc by KOL groups and form their own opinion rather blindly trusting an analyst report (even if it’s semi decent). Gone are the days when only select few folks or analysts would have access to the company’s top executives, competitors, scientists, data, publications, etc. Besides, how can these so called analysts become expert of 100s of drugs in such a short span? And often times, these guys claim to know more about the science and data then the leading scientists and Co-PIs, collaborators on the project. I’d rather trust science leaders who have been studying these topics throughout their career. In short, in this day and age of information technology revolution, you can not expect folks to believe in articles that have no substance.

And to be honest, pandemic is actually amplifying this effect. Folks working remotely from home or working limited hours or out of work have more time on their hands to do their own research and make their own judgement. Good luck everyone! We have a winner!