Replies to post #212 on Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX)

[DewDiligence]

>What were your estimates for Tyzeka / Sebivo sales the first year?<

I was expecting better than $20M in the U.S. alone.

3Q06 sales of Baraclude were $22M (an $88M annual run rate) and that included only a partial quarter of sales in the UK, France, Germany, and Japan.

3Q06 sales of Hepsera—a clearly inferior drug—were $55M (a $220M annual run rate).

To reiterate: I hope JP’s $20M guidance is an intentionally lowball figure.

[gofishmarko]

>>> JP sounds like he has a terrible cold, coughing and sneezing. Might have been better for someone else to make the presentation? <<<

I agree. I can hear the wise guys in the crowd now : " What JP needs is a good antiviral. "

From one of the slides , it looks like entecavir captured around 15-20% of the total nuke scrips by the end of the first year of sales. I'd be happy if Tyzeka shows a similar trajectory , but I haven't tried to figure out what the first-year sales figure would be for that scenario. Probably over $20 mill. , but maybe not that much more considering we're talking mostly U.S. sales until ex-U.S. ramps up.

To get to $20 mill. first-year sales we may be selling at a $50 or $60 mill. annual rate or more by the end of that first year (U.S.).