3Q06 sales of Baraclude were $22M
sure, but it took baraclude some time to reach this sales figure..if we're going to extrapolate at all then the trajectory of growth is more relevant imo, because of the nature of HBV therapy..its fairly chronic, and patients already on one agent are for the most part going to stay on that agent until a viral breakthrough regardless of other superior agents out there..for the many who do have viral breakthrough, for so long hepsera was used as either a replacement or add-on to lamivudine, so it will take time to convert these docs..but just give it time - any educated pt will demand tyzeka or baraclude, and patients initiating tx will more and more be started on one of these 2 agents as first line (and for breakthroughs over hepsera). I always thought your initial tyzeka expectations were high (which i hinted at when you made the initial survey here)..as a total aside the current projection is nearly double that of one analyst who has been mentioned on this board who projected approx 11M in 2007 sales (going to 50M in 2008)..and despite his "ridiculously low" guidance as you referred to it months ago, his year to year % growth may not be far off - which would translate to 20+M in 2007 and close to 100M in 2008..anyway can't be easy to project accurately after only 5-6 weeks of sales data and we'll see how this plays out in coming quarters
as for the other nuggets tonight, I thought pretty much as expected..with drug interaction study still ongoing and the company yet to discuss phase III with FDA I never expected phase III to be initiated sooner than today's guidance. What was odd was JP's projecting nm-283 to be likely the first direct antiviral in phase III (this was on a slide)..personally I think its going to be neck and neck with vx-950.. I would have really liked to see some hint on when trial (or strategy) for tx-experienced pts might commence. the only non-naive trial i saw listed for 2007 was hiv/hcv coinfection
I did think JP was particularly bullish on their HIV candidate(s), and to look out for data next month..obviously there is zero data out and we would have to take this at face value
what i don't have high hopes for is valtorcitibine, but this is how I have felt all along..if data does show superiority to an already very efficacious product (tyzeka) I consider this an added bonus
I don't know what to make of the turnover in management, except that this may relate to a new emphasis in HIV vs hep B given the background of the respective docs in question (as has already been posted here)...like Dew I hope this isn't a recurring theme
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