Replies to post #2284 on Abet Chichi2 (Chichi2)

[chichi2]

08:40 ET Motorola tops consensus for Q3, issues favorable guidance for Q4 (MOT) 13.79: -- Update -- Co reports Q3 EPS ex-items of $0.06 a share, $0.03 better than the Reuters Research consensus. On a GAAP basis, co earned $0.05. Sales rose 5% to $6.83 bln (consensus $6.44 bln). For Q4, co sees EPS ex-items of $0.11-0.15 on sales of $7.5-7.8 bln -- consensus $0.12 and $7.426 bln.

[chichi2]

11:09 ET New 52-week highs : With the Nasdaq at a new high today and the Dow very close, there are lots of new highs today... New hi/lo tallies for NYSE and Nasdaq are 300-0 and 236-2... Stocks making new 52-week highs today include Retail Apparel (ANN, CHS, FD, PLCE, URBN), Dow Stocks (AXP, C, GM, INTC, MMM, PG), Semis (INTC, NSM, VTSS), Handsets (ERICY, MOT), Networking (FFIV, GLW, HLIT), Computers (AAPL, DELL), Homebuilders (CTX, DHI, LEN, RYL), Hotels (ENN, FS, WXH), Brokers (AGE, ET, MER), Delivery (FDX, UPS).

[chichi2]

09:08 ET Gapping up/down : Pre-market movers of note include LUME +85% (receives FDA approval), DCTM +21% (to be acquired by EMC), CORI +14% (upgraded at FBR; target $10), SUPG +10% (target raised to $17 at Rodman & Renshaw), PLUM +8% (upgraded at ThinkEquity), STEL +7% (announces data transformation web service), ELON +6% (beats prior guidance)... On the downside, UNTD -15% and ELNK -6% (America Online to launch discount dialup under Netscape name), EMC -4% (to buy DCTM), HLYW -7% (reports in-line EPS, revs light), FRX -2% (guides lower, negative Barron's article).

SOURCE: Ck replied to

[chichi2]

12:50 ET Mid-Day Summary : The major averages have been trading slightly lower today as market shrugs off excellent reports from BAC and MER and investors brace for INTC and NVLS' earnings reports after the close... Small caps are displaying relative strength today as the Russell 2000 notched a new 52-week high. Overall volume remains on the low side... Market Highlights: EMC announces it will acquire DCTM, which ignites interest in secondary names such as FILE and OTEX... JNJ leads the major drugs out of the red with its positive earnings report... ISPs lower as AOL joins price war in the group... Industrial metals showing strength as AA, PD, and X hit new 52-week highs... STT stands out among banks on stronger than expected earnings... Education stocks displaying relative weakness as most trade down more than a dollar... AMZN leading a small rally in Internets as it makes another 52-week high... Oil Service stocks trading lower for the second straight day... FDX continues to rocket higher after yesterday's upgrade from Merrill with an $80 target.

SOURCE: from **OPEN Click replied to

[chichi2]

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[chichi2]

Briefing.com (Harris Full list)

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MAIN INDEX (has many accesses)
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[chichi2]

Briefing.com (Harris Full list)

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http://www.briefing.com/harrisdirect/stocks/inplay.htm

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MAIN INDEX (has many accesses)
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[chichi2]

Biderman: Neutral but when NewOfferings resume will turn Bearish again.
(Chi2: He just moved from Bearish to Neutral, but appears to cover himself.)

Excerpt from Liquidity Report
Charles Biderman CEO TrimTabs
http://www.trimtabs.com/

BOTTOM LINE: WE TURN NEUTRAL FROM BEARISH.
WHEN NEW OFFERING CALENDAR RESUMES IN EARNEST,
WE WILL AGAIN TURN BEARISH.

We will turn neutral from bearish. Granted, the stock market could experience a sharp correction here. A VIX level below 18 is evidence of extreme bullishness,and U.S. equity fund inflows are at recent highs. Also, it appears that most
investors are all-in, which means that the smart guys have become fully invested on the expectation of higher earnings and guidance during this earnings season.

Unless interest rates surge or new offerings again average over $1 billion daily, however, we fear the bubble will resume growing before it pops.
------------------------------

[chichi2]

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MAIN INDEX (has many accesses)
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[chichi2]

Briefing.com (Harris Full list)

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MAIN INDEX (has many accesses)
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[chichi2]

Reuters: Mrkt ends Flat. CSco up

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=ITDCK4CQOYM0GCRBAEKSFFA?type=businessNews....

for "more" diversity ,
click on "replied to"

and see Technical Analysis

[chichi2]

08:30 ET Initial Claims 348 vs 380k consensus; Productivity 8.1 vs 8.5% consensus
[08:32] U.S. Q3 output up 8.8%, most in 11 years

[08:33] NQ03Z 1442.50 +1.00 +0.06%
[08:33] ES03Z 1052.75 -0.75 -0.07%

[chichi2]

Cherney: Watching the VXO for Nov19


The market volatility index is going to have to move below key levels to lend legitimacy to any lift in prices

This is option expiration week.

by Cherney, chief market analyst for Standard & Poor's
to subscribe to businesswk online http://www.businessweek.com




The VXO (market volatility index) is going to have to get back below its 10-day exponential moving average to lend legitimacy to any lift in prices. On Tuesday, very near the close of trading, the VXO 's 10-day exponential moving average was 18.10.

If I could write the recipe for Wednesday, it would be to start out with a shakeout which forces intraday Put/Call ratios (both Total P/C and Equity Only) above 1.00.

Support: Nasdaq support runs 1,892 through 1,873.62, but the index has another price gap in the charts (the gap created Oct. 28, 2003 has already been filled), the remaining gap was created by the opening of Oct. 27, 2003 and it runs 1,873.62-1,866.43. A partial or complete filling of this gap should attract some bears covering shorts and momentum players might try the long-side at the same time, meaning that there is real potential for an opening drop in prices to satisfy the short-term selling pressure and then prices could lift from their lows.

Next S&P 500 support is 1,037.75-1,029.19.

End-of-day indicators have not really moved into configurations which suggest that the current decline is over, but these indicators will probably lag a turn by a trade day.

Resistance: Immediate resistance for the Nasdaq is 1,906-1,926.00 then 1,930-1,937.92 then 1,945.69-1,956.93.

The S&P 500 has resistance is stacked 1,041.75-1,048.77 and 1,048.11-1,052.10. Additional resistance is 1,054 to 1,062.19 with a focus at 1,056.94-1,060.79.

[chichi2]

7pmNov18: Gold Futures Rise Above $400 for First Time in Seven Years


Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) --

(Chi2 comment: Last Updated: November 18, 2003 21:46 EST )

Gold rose above $400 an ounce for the first time in more than seven years after the dollar fell to a record low against the euro, making bullion priced in the U.S. currency cheaper for buyers in Europe.

Gold for December delivery rose as much as $3.10, or 0.8 percent, to $400.70 an ounce, its highest since April 1996, in electronic trading on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. It lost ground to trade at $399.30 at 1:24 p.m. Sydney time.

``We're looking at what could be significantly higher gold prices over the long term,' said Frank McGhee, head trader at Alliance Financial LLC in Chicago. ``Gold could easily spike up another $20 or $30' in the next week to 10 days on speculation of further declines in the dollar against the euro.

Higher gold prices may boost revenue of producers such as Newmont Mining Corp., the world's biggest producer of the metal, and Japan's Sumitomo Metal Mining Co.

Newmont's shares traded in Australia rose 2.5 percent to A$6.23 at 2 p.m. Sydney time, bringing gains to 41 percent in the past six months. Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. shares rose 1.8 percent to 688 yen, taking its gains to 70 percent since May 19.

This year's 15 percent rally in gold futures has been fueled partly as the dollar slumped against all of the 16 most-traded currencies except the Mexican peso. The dollar slid 12 percent against the euro and 23 percent against the South African rand.

The dollar touched a record low against the euro in Asian trading after net foreign purchases of U.S. securities in September fell to the lowest in five years, a government report showed yesterday. Gold futures have gained almost half during the past two years.

`Dollar Weakness'

``We've been saying for a little while now that it wouldn't surprise us to see the gold price go through $400 because it is driven by dollar weakness,' Jonathan Best, finance director of AngloGold Ltd., the world's second-biggest gold producer, said in an interview yesterday. ``Four hundred dollars is a psychological point for the gold price.'

Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as $3.42, or 1.2 percent, to $400.55, from $397.13 at 1:30 p.m. in New York yesterday. Spot gold traded at $399.15 at 1:24 p.m. Sydney time.

The dollar fell as much as 0.1 percent to $1.1978 against the euro, from $1.1973 in late New York trading yesterday. It traded at $1.1960 at 1:43 p.m. Sydney time.

Gold futures have risen from $257.30 on Aug. 31, 1999, the lowest price in the past two decades, amid falling output and as mining companies reduced sales of metal for future delivery. The price has also gained as central banks slowed sales of gold reserves and terrorist attacks in the U.S., the Middle East and Asia raised demand from investors seeking a haven.

The increase in gold prices ``may encourage investment in mines and new production,' said Doug Buerger, chief executive and managing director of Australia's Bendigo Mining NL, which is considering developing a mine under the town of Bendigo, north of Melbourne. ``More and more we're getting views from fund managers out there that they need to get gold into their portfolio' either in the form of bullion or equities, he said.

Last Updated: November 18, 2003 21:46 EST

[chichi2]

Cherney: Stocks Likely to Struggle Higher


Indicators have now assumed positions which tilt the odds in favor of higher prices

by Cherney, chief market analyst for Standard & Poor's

Note: Paul Cherney will be out of the office beginning Nov. 20. His column will return Thursday, Dec. 4.

to subscribe to business wk online http://www.businessweek.com

This is option expiration week.

The VXO (market volatility index) is going to have to get back below its 10-day exponential moving average to lend legitimacy to this lift in prices, but for now there are enough indicators at or near oversold levels that a struggle higher seems likely. Nothing ever lines up exactly, but indicators based on end-of-day data have now assumed positions which tilt the odds in favor of higher prices.

One more day of indecision (Thursday) is possible, but after reviewing similar indicator patterns over the past nine months, I would expect the current configurations to indicate higher prices in the short-term (expecting four out of the next seven or eight trading days to have closing gains).

Support: Nasdaq support runs 1,892 through 1,873.62; the index has a price gap in the charts at 1,873.62-1,866.43.

S&P 500 support is 1,039.93-1,034.00 and 1,037.75-1,029.19.

Resistance: Immediate resistance for the Nasdaq is 1,906-1,926.00, then 1,930-1,937.92, then 1,945.69-1,956.93.

The S&P 500's resistance is stacked: 1,041.75-1,048.77 and 1,048.11-1,052.10. Additional resistance is 1,054 to 1,062.19, with a focus at 1,056.94-1,060.79.

[chichi2]

Chi2: at near resistance, VXN QQV
(above bollinger bands can not last long, particularily in a resistance area, see peaks and valleys)

NDX QQQ nearing support (at lower bollinger band support).

[chichi2]

12:00ET Treasuries lower as traders look to CPI : The market has been channeling in a narrow 3 bp range in the 10-year after moving as high as 4.856% on the open of trading Sunday. Treasuries in the EuroZone, after opening lower on inflation woes, have been trending higher and are heading into the close relatively unchanged. The dollar is weaker against the euro and sterling following the widening of the U.S. trade gap this morning while holding gains against the yen on a likely rate hike in China. After opening lower the market has clung to slight gains, driven in part by geopolitical issues. The curve continues to flatten as the 2-10 spread narrows from 199.3 Friday to 194.8. The market has shown itself jittery about inflationary issues, and will be watching Tuesday's CPI report for May (and perhaps PPI) to determine the extent of the Federal Reserve's action at month's end. The "flatter-day volume has been fairly good, especially in the 10-years, but died some heading into mid-day," noted one dealer, "today we will churn around in anticipation of tomorrow's news and data," with CPI and Greenspan locking up players' attention. Ongoing violence is helping support a market weighed upon heavily by both fundamental and technical pressures. The 10-year is currently -09/32nds, yielding 4.836%, 2-year is currently -05/32nds, yielding 2.888%, 5-year is currently -01/32nds, yielding 4.063%, 30-year is currently -10/32nds, yielding 5.498%.

[chichi2]

Ralph Bloch’s Weekly Commentary

August 26, 20044

“‘Climactic’ Low Working!”


Monday: 8/23
Talk about a dull summer session that was the day after expiration! We got it in spades yesterday. The market opened 4 lower and just drifted back and forth across the flat line until real late when traders saw the market wasn’t going anywhere, so they sold stock into the bell. Also, of course, it was the day after expiration that often goes opposite the next trading session. These were, in my opinion, the factors motivating a market that lost 37 points on volume of all of 1 billion! My heart couldn’t stand the excitement! All of this with oil closing at $46 – could it have had a buying “climax”? NASDAQ outperformed as it was plus all day until the bell when it ended flat – still better than the DJI. The plus of the day was the SOXX, which closed 4 higher. We made the comment yesterday that we need to see the SOXX start to improve – yesterday it did! Losses in UTX and WMT hurt the DJI by 14-3/4 points. Breadth was the weakest indicator, losing 854, but may I point out that it recently posted a new recovery high above its July peak – a good plus!

I am now trying to figure out whether the low–rally–retest sequence has to play out just that way. We’ve gotten the first two parts, and does the market have to go through part 3? The answer is two-fold: No is the first part, and the second is that I don’t need to guess at this time. The market will either engage in a retest or go through a period of “backing and filling”. The likelihood of a “V”-type straight up move (while anything is possible) is highly unlikely. So, a successful retest would greatly strengthen the bottom if it unfolds that way. We have time to see how it starts to unfold and then take action. “Never anticipate my command,” my basic training sergeant used to scream – he never spoke, he just screamed. As of 6:30 a.m., futures were all above fair value.

Tuesday: 8/24
A bounce back from Monday’s session as the market rose 57 by 10.00 a.m. That proved to be the day’s high, as prices went lower and finally finished plus 25 points on real low volume of 1 billion shares – wait until half of NY leaves the city to avoid the zoo-like atmosphere of the convention and the high quality protesters that it will draw. NASDAQ opened 7 higher but quickly faded to finish off 2 points. The real source of tech weakness was the SOXX index, which lost 10 points – that did not make me happy. This group must start to stabilize before anything serious can start and last on the upside. The A-D index was in good shape all day with 1020 net plus at 10:00 a.m. and a close of 411 net advances. The price of oil fell to $45.21 – a plus. Some firm lowered its target on CSCO by $1 – now that’s fine tuning!

Nothing much was delineated from yesterday’s low volume dull action, and there is little further I can add beyond our recent discussions about whether a full retest is likely or the market just moves laterally for a period of time – after Labor Day, at best. I will express the opinion that another significant leg South is not a likely occurrence. The price of oil is falling, the Olympics (so far) have been safe, and the world is grateful. My guess is also that a great many players are waiting for the employment report – any excuse for doing little or nothing.

Wednesday: 8/25
Fueled by a sharp drop of $1.74 in the price of oil to $43.47, the market, having been minus 18 at 10:00 a.m., got a set of legs to close plus 83 points on volume of 1.19 billion. Oil has fallen 10% in just the past four days, and we once again remind you that the market started to ignore oil several days before – how it know? The A-D index continued to trade well to finish with 1282 net advances. Also, and this is important, the techs were up nicely (24), and the SOXX picked up some good action late after being fractionally lower all morning – it finished with a gain of 4 points. We’ve been saying that we need the tech sector in play if we’re going to get a healthy and lengthy rally going – let’s hope yesterday was the start of the bounce back from all the fundamental calls that occurred 30%-40% from their peaks. These late calls caused what we labeled a “selling climax”, and that took place about two weeks ago and marked the bottom as “climaxes” usually do. Gains in BA were nearly 12 DJI points.

Conclusion:
The latest I.I. figures are of interest. I remind you that these are sentiment indicators, so they’re contrary opinion.

This Week
Last Week

Bulls
39.6%
43.6%

Bears
30.2%
28.7%

Correction
30.2%
27.7%


The bullish contingent is the lowest since October 2002. Interestingly, October 2002 was exactly the time when the DJI posted its bear market low at 7200! So, the market posts its 10700 peak last February – drops to 9800 two weeks ago, and the bulls finally give it up – don’t you just love it? The likelihood of a full retest is getting a bit less likely unless the terrorists pull off one of their nightmare attacks. As of 6:00 a.m., futures are quiet and slightly below fair value, and a pause day is perfectly O.K.

Ralph Bloch
Senior Vice President

[chichi2]

[08:39] NQ04U 1385.50 -12.50 -0.89%
[08:39] ES04U 1116.50 -3.00 -0.26%

notice, little or no change from last night's after hours numbers.

the above futures numbers being after the 8:30am economic numbers have settled into futures numbers

[chichi2]

16:41ET Breakout Report : -- Technical -- Stocks that have demonstrated above average volume breakouts today from recent consolidation patterns/resistance areas:

 
 ADM, AMXC, ARRS, ARW, ASTSF, AXS, BER, CHTT, CIB, CMTL, CPHD,  
 CMOS, DDDC, DPL, DTPI, EGY, ELAB, ENCY, ETM, EXAS, FFIV, GNW,  
 GSK, HCC, HDWR, IINT, ISLE, JCOM, LPL, MICC, MIX, NTAP, OVTI,  
 PCU, PWR, RDEN, RFMD, SGR, SFD, SIGM, SJT, SRP, SWFT, TEVA,  
 TIMHY, TIWI, TSAI, TSRA, TUP, UHS, WEC, WHQ, YUM. 
  
  
  
 
                            

[chichi2]

08:31ET S&Pfutures vs fair value: +1.1 NasdaqFutures vs fair value: +3.5. Futures trade holds relatively steady following the latest read on GDP, still indicating a flat to slightly higher start for the indices...

The Commerce Dept. has revised Q4 GDP up to 3.8% versus a prior read of 3.1% in the advance report while Chain Deflator has checked in at 2.1%, versus a prior read of 2.0%

[chichi2]

12:10 ET Market View: Indices pull back toward intraday range floor/session low (TECHX) : -Technical- -Update- The market averages staged a decent bounce off the early data related lows but were unable to build on the bounce. In recent action the major averages have weakened bringing their intraday range floor/session lows at 2290 Nasdaq Comp, 11806 Dow and 1344 S&P 500 in play. Short term secondary supports are at 2287 and 2282/2280 Nasdaq, 1341/1340 S&P 500 and 11790 Dow.

12:21 ET Market View: 10-Yr Yield sets new session/two week high, Home Construction -XHB- and REITs -IYR- back near session lows (TECHX) :

10:28 ET Qualcomm - - 50 Day Alert (QCOM) 36.39 +0.13: -Technical- -Update- Price pops above yesterday's high of 36.31 to challenge its 50-day simplel ma at 36.54.

"The jobs report showed a lower than expected nonfarm payrolls gain of 51K (consensus 120K), but there was an upward revision to the prior month to188K from 128K. The two months together average just about 120K. Hourly earnings rose 0.2%, which was below the 0.3% consensus estimate and the unemployment rate dipped to 4.6% from 4.7%. Altogether the data won't change expectations that the Fed will refrain from raising rates again at this month's FOMC meeting, so we consider this really to be a neutral report." "The futures market has weakened in the wake of the jobs report as participants are concentrating on the below-consensus nonfarm payrolls gain as a sign the economy may be slowing in a more appreciable manner than is now believed. We disagree with that view and think the payrolls number is simply offering a perfect excuse to take some money off the table from the market's short-term overbought condition."




source:
http://www.briefing.com/harrisdirect/stocks/inplay.htm