BOTTOM LINE: WE TURN NEUTRAL FROM BEARISH. WHEN NEW OFFERING CALENDAR RESUMES IN EARNEST, WE WILL AGAIN TURN BEARISH.
We will turn neutral from bearish. Granted, the stock market could experience a sharp correction here. A VIX level below 18 is evidence of extreme bullishness,and U.S. equity fund inflows are at recent highs. Also, it appears that most investors are all-in, which means that the smart guys have become fully invested on the expectation of higher earnings and guidance during this earnings season.
Unless interest rates surge or new offerings again average over $1 billion daily, however, we fear the bubble will resume growing before it pops. ------------------------------