Replies to post #21846 on Abet Chichi2 (Chichi2)

[chichi2]

"The jobs report showed a lower than expected nonfarm payrolls gain of 51K (consensus 120K), but there was an upward revision to the prior month to188K from 128K. The two months together average just about 120K. Hourly earnings rose 0.2%, which was below the 0.3% consensus estimate and the unemployment rate dipped to 4.6% from 4.7%. Altogether the data won't change expectations that the Fed will refrain from raising rates again at this month's FOMC meeting, so we consider this really to be a neutral report."

"The futures market weakened in the wake of the jobs report as participants are concentrating on the below-consensus nonfarm payrolls gain as a sign the economy may be slowing in a more appreciable manner than is now believed. We disagree with that view and think the payrolls number is simply offering a perfect excuse to take some money off the table from the market's short-term overbought condition."

[chichi2]

Treasury Market Skids Lower on Data Realignments (BONDX)

01:26 ET Bond Watch: :The bond market fizzled out into the close, after getting slammed early it never recovered, not even close. Trade came in very long & there was really no where to go but down as virtually any outcome on the jobs data was going to be bond negative. The 10-yr managed to bust out an 11.4 basis point range as the market put its weight behind the sellers later in the session while the 2-yrs stuck to their 15bps. The curve managed to end-up essentially where it ended yesterday, with the 2-10-yr yield spread at -4.3.

The week ahead should give the market an opportunity to clear its head, with a smattering of data & the Sep FOMC meeting minutes, but something of a correction should kick-off the week (as they got virtually none today), but they may have established a new, lower level range tick around in front of any significant reports. The drop in payrolls was trumped by its revisions... only off by about 810K in the year through Mar 06... oh & another last month of +60K.

The buck rallied hard with the pullback thus far minimal suggesting there could be more room to move next week. The euro is down at 1.2602 while the yen is weak at 118.9150. The dollar index is well up at 86.44 (+0.52).

Spot gold is down at 570.85 (-3.45) though well off its session lows of 560.81 while crude is down at 59.71 (-0.32) as OPEC continues to quibble about cuts.

Next week brings Fed minutes, trade prices, retail sales & prelim UofM sentiment among others while the Fed calendar has Dallas's Fisher & Richmond's Lacker so far.

source:
http://www.briefing.com/harrisdirect/stocks/inplay.htm