There were 2 18%+ rallies in the fall of 2008 before the final low of March 2009.
We barely breached the low of Dec 2018 where people were freaked out that Fed tightening might lead us into a recession. IMO this is far far worse even with all the money slushing around trying to prop up an economy that is crippled by a pandemic we can't control.
Can anyone imagine a scenario where events that rely on large crowds i.e. MLB, NFL, NBA, College sports, concerts, theaters, festivals etc can resume without a vaccinated population? So many travel related businesses depend on these events...airlines, hotels, restaurants, bars. There are a lot of ancillary businesses that rely on these events as well.
It's hard to imagine that airlines could come close the same level of passenger bookings even if these events resumed without vaccinations.
Absent a vaccine, unless a cure is developed that is 100% effective and widely distributed where people can self medicate like taking an aspirin...I can't see how we get close to being back to normal. As for a vaccine, the problem is the world needs 8 billion doses. How long will it take to ramp up and how is it going to be distributed? How long before most of the U.S. is vaccinated? It would be impossible to vaccinate 300M+ people in a few months.
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