Replies to post #241973 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Markipeach]

Excellent post. The “good news” of a victory in court wont do much for the PPS. There is only one thing that will do that——- and that wont happen without a settlement. Most on this board have waited 5-10 years Lets end this thing and see what kind of deal JT can make

[Bouf]

STS—

If Amarin wins and there is an appeal, this would settle soon thereafter.

Any such appeal would be a huge long shot because this is a bench trial and the judge’s findings on inducement and obviousness are just not going to be open to a serious challenge on appeal. The lawyers for the generics will have to advise them how futile it is. They will try to salvage what they can from the leverage they have from the delay factor. Amarin will throw them a bone to get it over with, and retain the value of the district court’s decision as precedent.

B

[SocialBoom]

sts66, You've made a clear and convincing case for what would happen should Amarin lost the patent case which I also must say is highly unlikely.

There is however 1 MAJOR flaw in your prediction around Europe.

I'm of the opinion that if a catastrophe were to occur and Amarin lost and the Generics took over the US market, Amarin would NOT, partner Europe.

The PPS may indeed go thru the turmoil you suggest, but the end result would not be quite so dramatic.

1. Sales of Vascepa in the US are still going to hit $700+ million this year as it would take time for the generics to ramp up. Amarin would eliminate advertising, and sales staff, and support and be pretty profitable while sitting on over half a billion in cash.

2. They redirect those resources to going alone in Europe and run the operations from Ireland where they are already established.

They could still realize Peak Sales of $2 or $3 billion per year by 2024 or 2025 from global operations including being a generic competitor in the US.

Would any of that be fun? Heck no!!! But there would be a reasonable pathway for the company and this is partly why I scratch my head at the current market cap. Way too cheap even with catastrophe taken into consideration.

[marjac]

"rise will be dampened by the inevitable announcement on the same day that the generics plan to appeal the decision, so the patent overhang doesn't go away and BO fever doesn't occur. We really need AMRN to settle or a BO probably will never happen - by the time the appeals are finished there won't be enough time left for BP to make much money before Teva comes to market."

The above is probably some of the dumbest, least informed commentary in the history of this Board. 100% unpasteurized FUD.

First, the odds of succeeding on Appeal after a bench trial, are about as long as any odds in any legal proceeding. An Appellate Court is highly, highly reluctant to substitute its judgment for that of the trial judge who heard the evidence first-hand and was live in court to evaluate the credibility and demeanor of the witnesses. The trial judge would have to make a grievous error of law in order for an appeal to have even a scintilla of merit.

Second, Big Pharma has big money. Big money pays for big lawyers. As part of any due diligence in conjunction with any potential acquisition, Big Pharma will retain big lawyers who will advise them of the above.

Third, building upon the second point of Big Pharma + Big money = Big lawyers, any potential suitor will likewise retain those lawyers to do a complete legal analysis of the entire docket and issue a comprehensive legal opinion on the likely outcome. Due diligence 101.

Fourth, due diligence legal opinion in hand, BP will then have to make a business decision. Depending upon the legal opinion, and the decision-makers, BP might consider the litigation to be a deal-breaker/non-starter. However, it is also possible that BP evaluates the risk as minimal, and works it into the deal, as the amount of money to be made sufficiently outweighs the risk.

In conclusion, to speak in absolutes by stating that if Amarin does not settle "a BO probably will never happen", is highly irrational. While it is possible that the failure to settle will obstruct a BO, it is far from a foregone conclusion.

[Bolio98]

Due to AMRN pricing and AMRN locking up suppliers generics will not be able to create any kind of foothold. IMO.