Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[SocialBoom]

sts66, You've made a clear and convincing case for what would happen should Amarin lost the patent case which I also must say is highly unlikely.

There is however 1 MAJOR flaw in your prediction around Europe.

I'm of the opinion that if a catastrophe were to occur and Amarin lost and the Generics took over the US market, Amarin would NOT, partner Europe.

The PPS may indeed go thru the turmoil you suggest, but the end result would not be quite so dramatic.

1. Sales of Vascepa in the US are still going to hit $700+ million this year as it would take time for the generics to ramp up. Amarin would eliminate advertising, and sales staff, and support and be pretty profitable while sitting on over half a billion in cash.

2. They redirect those resources to going alone in Europe and run the operations from Ireland where they are already established.

They could still realize Peak Sales of $2 or $3 billion per year by 2024 or 2025 from global operations including being a generic competitor in the US.

Would any of that be fun? Heck no!!! But there would be a reasonable pathway for the company and this is partly why I scratch my head at the current market cap. Way too cheap even with catastrophe taken into consideration.