"rise will be dampened by the inevitable announcement on the same day that the generics plan to appeal the decision, so the patent overhang doesn't go away and BO fever doesn't occur. We really need AMRN to settle or a BO probably will never happen - by the time the appeals are finished there won't be enough time left for BP to make much money before Teva comes to market."
The above is probably some of the dumbest, least informed commentary in the history of this Board. 100% unpasteurized FUD.
First, the odds of succeeding on Appeal after a bench trial, are about as long as any odds in any legal proceeding. An Appellate Court is highly, highly reluctant to substitute its judgment for that of the trial judge who heard the evidence first-hand and was live in court to evaluate the credibility and demeanor of the witnesses. The trial judge would have to make a grievous error of law in order for an appeal to have even a scintilla of merit.
Second, Big Pharma has big money. Big money pays for big lawyers. As part of any due diligence in conjunction with any potential acquisition, Big Pharma will retain big lawyers who will advise them of the above.
Third, building upon the second point of Big Pharma + Big money = Big lawyers, any potential suitor will likewise retain those lawyers to do a complete legal analysis of the entire docket and issue a comprehensive legal opinion on the likely outcome. Due diligence 101.
Fourth, due diligence legal opinion in hand, BP will then have to make a business decision. Depending upon the legal opinion, and the decision-makers, BP might consider the litigation to be a deal-breaker/non-starter. However, it is also possible that BP evaluates the risk as minimal, and works it into the deal, as the amount of money to be made sufficiently outweighs the risk.
In conclusion, to speak in absolutes by stating that if Amarin does not settle "a BO probably will never happen", is highly irrational. While it is possible that the failure to settle will obstruct a BO, it is far from a foregone conclusion.
