AMRN itself has claimed that Vascepa would treat 10's of millions
of patients. If taken literally, that would mean at least 10 million.
Even if that number were cut in half it would still represent around
$10 billion in revenues...enough for BP to justify a $40 billion bid.
What I see as a Catch-22 is that massive revenues will only come about
when AMRN is owned by BP as they have the ability to ramp-up distribution
far higher and further than AMRN could in a GIA environment. Any delay
in BP acquiring AMRN will cost them "BIG TIME" in lost revenues on the
back-end of Vascepa's commercial life cycle.
Europe by itself will be a Mega-Blockbuster market for Vascepa with
11 years free of generics! This is something all stock analysts
miss or ignore. The sooner BP acquires AMRN the more time they
will have to prepare for individual country by country negotiations
and launch over there. Keep in mind Europe has no direct to consumer
advertising, so a well motivated, experienced, and professional
Cardiovascular sales force is essential. No BP will want to pay
AMRN a royalty on Vascepa for 11 years either...that would be idiocy
on their part. The sooner BP owns AMRN the longer time they will
have to reap the benefits!
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