Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Biobillionair]

Re: Buy Out

IMO current patent case doesn’t stop an offer. Why? Because direct infringement case can be filed by BP using composition IP.

That being said, I don’t expect a buyout yet because AMARIN places a very high value on Vascepa lifecycle and a minimal BID of around $40bn is what it takes for AMARIN to be interested. I’m expecting 2020 sales of around $1.5bn still not enough to justify $40bn price tag. By 2024 peak sales will be pushing $10bn...remember AHA/ACC will make Vascepa standard of care 2022. Now $40bn looks cheap....

Expect BO between 2020 to 2024 depending on how smart BP is...also look at how Warner–Lambert deal went down, don’t get stuck on all the products Warner–Lamber had....PFE was ONLY interested in Lipitor and easily would have paid $40bn for it in 1999.

JT gave 2020 sales estimates that matched Lipitor’s first year launch ~$700 million and we all know he lowballed. It is very possible PFE is willing to repeat Warner–Lambert like deal, $40 bn for a single product is similar valuations considering 1999 deal.

So the next three Monday’s are possible a deal starts to be negotiated.

BB