Replies to post #235214 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[mrmainstreet]

I think this is fair. Hopefully script growth gives JT no choice but to raise guidance again. At some point the math demands it, no matter how much you want to under-promise.

[sts66]

Q4 is almost over - AMRN likely knows within a few million exactly what they going to sell this quarter, and it's not strictly tied to scrips, wholesalers build up inventory every Dec. before the price goes up in Jan.

While I firmly believe 2020 sales will be up +80% to +100% over 2019 sales, for JT to come out and say he expects 90%-100% growth is absolutely not conservative guidance - have you ever owned a stock that guided to sales doubling YoY? I haven't. Have I seen it actually happen? Rarely, but yup.

[concapk]

Mellowmood77,

You are 100% correct that AMARIN'S PR on FRIDAY 12-13-2019, concerning sales projection's for the end of 2019 and 2020 caused this downturn from $26 to $21.... lower guidence killed us.... always look to the future...

AMARIN tried to under promise (sandbag) and over deliver in their forecast.... if they had stated $140 to $150 mil 4th quarter projection which would be 20% over 3rd quarter for 2019, and $800-900 mil (see HDG projection ) for 2020 which equates TO 80-90% over 2019, we would have been fine.... as MELLOWMOOD77 stated, the market looks at forward guidence and JT stating $650-700M indicates only 55-60% growth, the same as last year projection.... considering we should get almost all of the generic sales, which SAM posts each week,that alone get us to $800m...I emailed ELISABETH Sunday and Mon. before CC, to have JT consider changing his projections, stating that over the weekend that these new projections reflect normal consistent sales patterns.... No response...

That would have made OPPENHEIMER'S and the other four analysts projections mute.... see how they stayed within their earlier reports of sales projections...they easily created doubt and made their $2-3 mil 2022-2023 sales projection look solid....

Add that the Generic Case settlement hearing was also on Monday and the non settlement makes Amarin look vulnerable.... you can deal with one issue at a time, but when you have to deal with multiple issues, see what transpires.... Amarin is now on the defense and not the offense...

Take time to E-MAIL Elisabeth giving your imput.....