Replies to post #232768 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Jeffkad]

Funnygi2, I think that’s as reasonable a guess as any. I think Europe pop is actually 750M or so, double US. However, US statin-taking population is roughly 40M, or around 15% of pop. A 2013 CEDC report put European statin use at around 9% of pop, but that could be around 60M. And yes, V cost will be significantly lower in Europe, just don’t know how much lower. As for BO if your $50B is the right gross revenue, maybe it pushes to $25B? Anybody’s guess,

[HDGabor]

f-

Do you think they will GIA in Europe*, South America and Rest of world (incl. Australia, NZ, India)?
Do you know that V won't be sell in Japan (one of the biggest - if isn't the biggest - market after the US)?
Are you aware of any prescription drug that generated more revenue ex-US than in the US?

* If you mean that $16 bn in Europe as licensing / revenue share revenue: no way … the % won't be higher than 30% (more likely max. 20-30%) -> 30% = 16 bn = more than 50 bn ...

Best,
G

[KCSVEN]

Best info I found on Lipitor is Europe market was about 15 percent of revenue so you look very high. Most peak sales estimates include worldwide sales and remember BP knows Amarin will only get royalties so would discount revenue they would get there knowing Amarin can’t get the same revenue. Your US numbers are low however. You must realize how royally screwed we are in US in paying for drugs,