Replies to post #223121 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Mr1979]

Great response. Very realistic. Those 15 million projections are faulty unless there is something done with a label for diabetics am I right ? Do we have enough diabetics in the US to add a few more million patients to the population?

[AVII77]

It is app. 7.5 million POTENTIAL patient

If EVERYBODY who is eligible (match to the indication) will be on V = 11.25 bn Net Revenue per year

If the same % as statin (50%) will be on V = 5.62 bn Net Revenue per year

ICER came out with usage estimates that are in-line with yours.

They estimated an eligible US patient population of 6.7 million.

They also offered an interesting comment; for both drugs they studied, they interviewed physicians and came out with the following two statements:

"Clinical experts suggested that around one-third of eligible patients should likely receive rivaroxaban"

"Clinical experts suggested that the majority of eligible patients should likely receive icosapent ethyl"

It may be worth noting that ICER's estimate of the eligible patient pop for rivaroxaban is roughly half the size of their estimate for Vascepa. And last year rivaroxaban sold $2.5 Billion in the US (and another $4 B overseas).

I have no idea what our sales might be; $5B, $10B, $15B?. My kids would call this a "first world problem" (like a woman lamenting that her diamond earrings are scratching the glass on her new IPhone).