The supposed 5% expected alive at five years for the SOC group in the Optune trial was actually due to all or nearly all dead censors. 5% KM estimated is essentially 0% actually alive due to the high number of censors in the Optune trial.
What is the likelihood that all of the 16 that had survived 5 years had passed on prior to just 24 months after the last patient was enrolled?
Did they provide an enrollment curve?
I just don't see a possibility of the 5 year getting to 13% when it was at 3.4% at the 24 month since last enrollment time. 13%= 60 patients
24 months from time zero= 37% or 466-174= 12 per month attrition rate up to 24 months. that would have slowed down some after 24 months but even if we cut that number down by 3/4's and say 3 per month we wouldn't even get to 4 years before most of the 57(Some of these 57 include the 16, 5 year survivors) remaining would have had an event.
13% or 60 patients is not even mathematically possible in my opinion. Even if all of the prior 5 year survivors (16) had passed away it would mean 44 of the remaining 57 would have to make it to 60 months. There are not enough patients alive to outrun that attrition rate. Unless their enrollment curve was heavily front loaded???
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