Replies to post #910 on Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

[dewophile]

I think CD is 90% chance of efficacy success at 24 weeks and is probably widely viewed as such

I don't think it is quite the slam dunk you suggest, and I do think a large pharma will want more data on efficacy and durability before they commit large dollars not just to partner but also help fund a series of trials in therapeutic indications that collectively will end up being a large financial commitment. I also don't think a deal contingent on results from the CD trial is easy to strike today because the degree of differentiation from current neurotoxins may not be quite so clean and easy to define.

The phase 2 data had 3 cohorts of 12 patients each, and one of the 3 didn't meet efficacy at 24 weeks. It also was the middle dose so no clean dose response to explain this either. https://investors.revance.com/static-files/8ea70b1c-1b6f-4231-a57d-becd8add8ad5
It's why the phase 3 is looking at 2 doses, and why the upper limb phase 2 has 3 doses - they are still figuring out what dose is ultimately going to be optimal. This poses a wrinkle also for pricing the drug and means it would be tough to partner just aesthetics if a therapeutic partner down the road then gets locked into a price for aesthetics that doesn't make sense for theapeutic indications.
So while you think lack of a partner now is on Browne (and hence not likely to change any time soon), I think the company just needs more data to get a proper deal