>…[GTCB] stock price reflects that of a company which is essentially just about to start a phase II for any real indication which can garner commercial potential<
I’m not sure there is such a thing as a phase-2 valuation anymore.
MRK just paid $1B (net of cash on hand) for RNAI, whose most advanced program (for AMD) is just entering phase-2.
REGN has a valuation of $1.4B and its most advanced program is in phase-2 (excluding one program in an orphan indication that is like GTC’s HD program).
There are other examples of “phase-2” companies with outsized valuations.
On the other end of the spectrum, there are many companies with programs in phase-3 for substantial commercial opportunities that have small valuations.
Trying to find logic in all this is likely to be a frustrating task because a lot of it boils down to fashion.
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