your point is well taken..I should have mentioned the perceived likelihood of trial success and regulatory approval, in addition to how long it will be before product is in the marketplace (i.e. not just phase in development but also expected time of trial accrual, priority of review, etc.) and size of the market in question should determine share price.
I do hear you though and there is that x-factor when certain sectors/areas are in (or out of) vogue that seems to disproportionately skew share price..I guess it is this latter effect that accounts for why many of us are individual investors to begin with (your tag line says it all, and it is these perceived inefficiencies in the market that we try to exploit)
in the case of gtcb, the initial stumble through EMEA may give people pause visa vie the FDA, and the historically poor track record for products in the DIC arena is another guess on my part to try and make some sense of the current pps (not that i am compelled to search for an explanation at all given my investment timeline, but the question was nevertheless raised on this board and it always helps to have a gut-check and reevaluate whenever share price differs radically from expectations)
of course I feel the GTCB approach to DIC has a strong scientific basis, and approaching a regulatory body with a product for which there is really no alternative production method allays my concern on both counts
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