GTC Biotherapeutics (fka GTCB)

[DewDiligence]

Valuation and fashion:

>…[GTCB] stock price reflects that of a company which is essentially just about to start a phase II for any real indication which can garner commercial potential<

I’m not sure there is such a thing as a phase-2 valuation anymore.

MRK just paid $1B (net of cash on hand) for RNAI, whose most advanced program (for AMD) is just entering phase-2.

REGN has a valuation of $1.4B and its most advanced program is in phase-2 (excluding one program in an orphan indication that is like GTC’s HD program).

There are other examples of “phase-2” companies with outsized valuations.

On the other end of the spectrum, there are many companies with programs in phase-3 for substantial commercial opportunities that have small valuations.

Trying to find logic in all this is likely to be a frustrating task because a lot of it boils down to fashion.