Replies to post #153201 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[market_watcher]

I just calculated the average dip in the week post op ex over the past year and it's 2.8%. There doesn't seem to be any relationship between the op ex week's action and the post op ex, at least in a linear regression with the post op ex week return regressed on the op ex week return.

So, would you say that we're due for a more than average dip during the week?

Also, wouldn't new lows be more likely to expand on the first failed rally off a new high? I would think the first down leg would bring some new lows, but that the real divergence would happen when they tried to rally the indices but couldn't get as many stocks to play along. In that scenario, we wouldn't get that many new lows on the next retreat, but they would continue to expand as the retreat was retraced.

[Public Heel]

I'm inclined to agree that the BPNDX/BPCOMPQ divergence "should" be bearish, as it's an indication that people are increasingly chasing smaller and more speculative stocks. Just doesn't seem to have worked that way, so far, though...

To change the subject from small to large, I would like to hear your thoughts on which Dow (or Dow-sized) stocks are likely to underperform or outperform the Dow as a whole. I am looking for a hedged play, either using DIA's as the hedge, or balancing outperformers and underperfomers.

So far, your suggestion that WM, GM and JNJ should be weak has been profitable for me, not because they actually have been weak, but because they have been weaker than the DIA's. (thanks!)

[porter]

Z---

This question may have been asked another time:

Were you trading the day of the October 1987 crash?

---P

P.S. Like others I am finding the cadence of your day-trading to be remarkable!!!

[Jerry Olson]

Hi Zeev

i have to differ with you here...

the BP NDX is but 1% away from a breakout buy signal on P&F..the BIO Tech BP is just .33% away too...

but more importantly the SPX is just .83% away from that large breakout buy...thsee are all 52 week highs.

what with the big cap techs leading this latest rally if we do not correct immediately i think the upside is unlimted only by the rampant bullishness out there right now..there's not a seller in the joint..

the fundies will sell thats for sure to lock in profits soon. but maybe not right here. They have till the end of Oct...

best

jer