We are already getting mild divergence in the new highs list. We have not managed to get back above 400 new highs and we are a solid 200 Naz points above the point were we did last register 400 plus new highs... As for new lows, they would expand a little during the retrench, but you are right the test for a deeper retrenchment is continuing (though mild) expansion during a post retrench retest of the high (or a attempt), and drastic reduction of new highs (like less than 200 on a rebound). As for post expiry week, I don't know which period you tested with the regression. My own testing indicated an inverse correlation between expiry week (and particularly expiry day) and the first two days of the following week. You may want to try a regression using the expiry week (or better yet, expiry day) and first week post expiry (or better yet, first two days post expiry).
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