Replies to post #216864 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

GILD +4% today because ABBV expects 2018 HCV stability in pricing (in all geographies) and near-stability in US HCV patient volume.

[DewDiligence]

ABBV 4Q17 CC notes re Mavyret /HCV market:

• ABBV expects 2018 pricing stability in all geographies and near-stability in US patient volume.

• ABBV’s 2018 HCV sales guidance (almost 100% Mavyret) =$2.5B, an increase relative to the $2.04B annualized run rate in 4Q17. (The $2.5B figure may be a deliberate lowball insofar as ABBV was badly burned by overestimating Viekira sales in prior years.)

• Mavyret is seeing very strong uptake in EU—already has #1 market share in Germany, UK, and Italy (but is not yet reimbursed in France).

• None of Mavyret’s 4Q17 sales in any geography was attributable to inventory stocking.