ABBV 4Q17 CC notes re Mavyret /HCV market:
• ABBV expects 2018 pricing stability in all geographies and near-stability in US patient volume.
• ABBV’s 2018 HCV sales guidance (almost 100% Mavyret) =$2.5B, an increase relative to the $2.04B annualized run rate in 4Q17. (The $2.5B figure may be a deliberate lowball insofar as ABBV was badly burned by overestimating Viekira sales in prior years.)
• Mavyret is seeing very strong uptake in EU—already has #1 market share in Germany, UK, and Italy (but is not yet reimbursed in France).
• None of Mavyret’s 4Q17 sales in any geography was attributable to inventory stocking.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”